Journal of Applied Economic Research
ISSN 2712-7435
Institutional Risks: in Search of Inflation Determinants
Ekimova N.A.
Abstract
The article is dedicated to the study of institutional factors that influenced the inflation processes in <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Russia</st1:place></st1:country-region> in the period of 1996-2018. On the basis of correlation and regression analysis it was concluded that there are such main determinants of inflation as the key rate, ruble / dollar exchange rate index, inflation expectations. Moreover, the influence of the factor of monetization of the economy, budget deficit and growth of prices on tariffs of natural monopolies for price stability have been studied. The nontrivial nature of the results is that they are partly contrary to traditional theories that explain inflation. In particular, a direct correlation between the indicators of the consumer price index and the key rate has been established. It is concluded that the influence of consumer sentiment on inflation processes in the short-term forecast is important. In addition, contrary to the well-established opinion on the key influence of monetary aggregates on inflation it is shown that in the period of 2010-2018 the amount of M2 money supply did not have a significant impact on price stability in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Russia</st1:country-region></st1:place>. Thus, the obtained results largely confirm the arguments of those modern researchers who prove the inefficiency of classical explanations of inflation. The work concludes that it is necessary to form a new approach to the assessment of modern inflation processes that would be based on the constant refinement and rechecking of the composition of the determinants of inflation in each country in a given period of time. This is due to the fact that the influence of the same factor on inflation can be diametrically opposed depending on the level of development of the economy and a specific time period.
Keywords
inflation; institutional risks; proactive diagnostic; key rate; exchange rate; inflation expectations.
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About Authors
Ekimova Natalia Aleksandrovna – Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, Leading Researcher, Center for Macroeconomic Studies, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Moscow, Russia (125993, Moscow, Leningradsky Prospect, 49); e-mail: n.ekimova@bk.ru.
For citation
Ekimova N.A. Institutional Risks: In Search of Inflation Determinants. Bulletin of Ural <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:placename w:st="on">Federal</st1:placename> <st1:placetype w:st="on">University</st1:placetype></st1:place>. Series Economics and Management, 2018, Vol. 17, No. 5, 732-750. DOI: 10.15826/vestnik.2018.17.5.033
Article info
Received July 25, 2018; Accepted August 29, 2018
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2018.17.5.033
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