Journal of Applied Economic Research
ISSN 2712-7435
Evaluation of the Prevalence of the Shadow Economy at the Regional Level
Krivorotov V.V., Kalina A.V., Podbereznaya M.A.
Abstract
. In modern conditions, the shadow economy is one of the key problems in the vast majority of the countries. The problem of the shadow economy has been the focus of many scientists and practitioners who developed a number of approaches to its identification and estimation. The purpose of this article is to conduct a modern assessment of the scale of the shadow economy in some regions of the Russian Federation and to suggest a forecast of its parameters depending on the scenarios for social and economic development of the regions. The subject of the research is the Sverdlovsk region – the largest industrial center of modern Russia. The methodology proposed by the staff of Baikal State University, which is based on the comparison of statistical and logical reporting data, was chosen as a methodological tool for assessing the spread of the shadow economy in the region. Assessment of the size of the shadow economy was carried out for the period 2006 – 2017 for Sverdlovsk, Kemerovo, Vologda, Chelyabinsk, Lipetsk and Novosibirsk regions that were combined into one group on a number of similar features. The results showed that almost throughout the entire calculation period there was a fairly stable trend of growth of the shadow economy in most of the studied areas. Economic and statistical modeling was used as a basis for predicting the potential size of the shadow economy. Thirteen influencing factors (variables) characterizing various aspects of the influence of the shadow economy on the socio-economic situation in the territory and the impact of the state regulatory authorities on the shadow sector were selected for the construction of the model. Forecast estimates of the of scale of the shadow economy in the Sverdlovsk region, obtained through the direct use of the constructed model have shown that with the current trends in the socio-economic development of the region in the long-term period, further growth in the volume of the shadow economy is expected, which should be considered as a negative trend.
Keywords
shadow economy; the extent of the shadow economy; methods of evaluation; region; gross regional product; gross profit; economic and statistical modeling, correlation analysis.
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About Authors
Krivorotov Vadim Vasilyevich – Doctor of Economics, Professor, Head of De-partment of Economic Safety of Industrial Complexes, Ural Federal University named after the first President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin, Ekaterinburg, Russia (620002, Ekaterinburg, Mira street, 19); e-mail: v_krivorotov@mail.ru.
Kalina Alexei Vladimirovich – Candidate of Technical Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of Economic Safety of Industrial Complexes, Ural Fed-eral University named after the first President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin, Ekaterinburg, Russia (620002, Ekaterinburg, Mira street, 19); e-mail: alexkalina74@mail.ru.
Podbereznaya Milena Aleksandrovna – Student of Group EM-542907, Ural Federal University named after the first President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin, Ekaterinburg, Russia (620002, Ekaterinburg, Mira street, 19); e-mail: milena121295@mail.ru.
For citation
Krivorotov V.V., Kalina A.V., Podbereznaya M.A. Evaluation of the Prevalence of the Shadow Economy at the Regional Level. Bulletin of Ural Federal University. Series Economics and Management, 2019, Vol. 18, No. 4, 540-555. DOI: 10.15826/vestnik.2019.18.4.027.
Article info
Received July 5, 2019; Accepted July 28, 2019.
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2018.17.4.027
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