Journal of Applied Economic Research
ISSN 2712-7435
The Influence of the Regional Sectoral Structure on the Socio-Economic Development of Primorye Region
K. G. Sorokozherdyev, K. A. Khodosov
Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, Saint Petersburg, Russia
Abstract
The paper analyzes the influence of the regional sectoral structure on the socio-economic development of the Primorye region. The subject of the research is the socio-economic development of the region. The purpose of the research is to analyze the role of the regional sectoral structure and each of its sectors separately in the socio-economic development of the region. The study examines industries such as agriculture, mining, manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail trade, hotels and restaurants, as well as the financial sector. The socio-economic development of the region is represented by such metrics as the average monthly wage per employee, the regional GRP and the birth rate. In this work, a regression model of the dependence of indicators of socio-economic development on the shares of the mentioned sectors of the regional economy in GRP is built. As a result, an autoregressive model with distributed lag (ADL-model) was obtained. The model reflects the relationship of endogenous indicators - average wages, GRP and the birth rate from economic activity in certain sectors of the regional economy. An important point is that exogenous indicators in the equations can be taken both directly for the corresponding period and with a time shift (lag), which is a feature of the ADL model. The results of the study make it possible to forecast the socio-economic development of the region for the medium term. The studies can be also applied in a scenario-based approach modeling the development of the region depending on the development of a particular sector of the regional economy. On the whole, the model makes it possible to evaluate the contribution of industries to the main indicators of socio-economic development, which can be useful also in the drafting of a regional development strategy.
Keywords
socio-economic development; regional sectoral structure; Primorye region
JEL classification
L11References
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About Authors
Sorokozherdyev Kirill Gennadevich – Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, Higher School of Economics, Institute of Industrial Management, Industry and Trade in Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, Saint Petersburg, Russia (195251, Saint Petersburg, Polytechnicheskaya street, 29); ORCID 0000-0002-5489-3989; e-mail: sorokozh_kg@spbstu.ru.
Khodosov Kirill Aleksandrovich – Student, Institute of Industrial Management, Industry and Trade in Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, Saint Petersburg, Russia (195251, Saint Petersburg, Polytechnicheskaya street, 29); ORCID 0000-0001-9648-7148; e-mail: k.a.khodosov@bk.ru.
For citation
Sorokozherdyev K. G., Khodosov K. A. The Influence of the Regional Sectoral Structure on the Socio-Economic Development of Primorye Region. Journal of Applied Economic Research, 2020,Vol. 19, No. 1, 60–78. DOI: 10.15826/vestnik.2020.19.1.004.
Article info
Received March 12, 2020; Revised March 20, 2020; Accepted March 27, 2020.
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2020.19.1.004
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