Journal of Applied Economic Research
ISSN 2712-7435
Review of Successful Practices of Applying Nowcasting in Socio-Economic Forecasting
D.V. Firsov, T.C. Chernyshevа
The Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
Abstract
A necessary competence in the present-day reality is the ability to analyze big data in the economy, and therefore one of the key issues is the choice of tools for such analysis. One of the most promising tools is nowcasting, which allows you to accurately determine economic changes in very short time periods. The aim of the study is to analyze successful modern practices of using nowcasting for statistical forecasting of socio-economic indicators. The hypothesis of the research lies in the assumption that nowcasting as a method of macroeconomic analysis can in the near future become a worthy alternative to traditional methods of analysis and statistical forecasting of indicators of socio-economic development, increasing the accuracy of their forecasting. The methodological basis of the study was the scientific works and applied developments of leading domestic and foreign scientists in the field of economic forecasting using statistics of search queries, as well as methods of comparative and statistical analysis, and the systematic approach. The novelty of the results obtained lies in the systematization and description of successful practices of using nowcasting and forecasting indicators using query statistics. The study highlights the basic principle of nowcasting, which is to obtain a more accurate assessment of the state of the economy as new data becomes available. It also describes the key statistical models used as tools for testing in foreign countries. As a result of the study, we highlight the importance of the analysis of statistical search queries, especially in the context of their correlation with classical survey metrics and general statistics. It is in an active phase of development, especially within the framework of the domestic forecasting practice. The results obtained can be applied both in a corporate environment and in the public sector to build macroeconomic forecasts.
Keywords
search queries; economic research; query statistics; big data analysis models; nowcasting.
JEL classification
C55, O21References
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Acknowledgements
The study was conducted with the support of the state task of the Government of the Russian Federation to the Financial University for 2021 on the topic "Directions of modernization of the Russian university system, taking into account the demands of the real sector of the economy and global technological trends".
About Authors
Firsov Dmitry Vladimirovich
Junior Researcher, Institute of Economic Policy and Economic Security Problems, The Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia (125993, Moscow, Leningradsky Prospect, 49); ORCID 0000-0001-5985-7285; e-mail:dvfirsov@fa.ru.
Chernysheva Tatiana Constantinovna
Research-Trainee, Institute of Economic Policy and Economic Security Problems, The Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia (125993, Moscow, Leningradsky Prospect, 49); ORCID 0000-0002-4744-7198; e-mailtkchernysheva@fa.ru.
For citation
Firsov D.V., Chernysheva T.C. Review of Successful Practices of Applying Nowcasting in Socio-Economic Forecasting. Journal of Applied Economic Research, 2021, Vol. 20, No. 2, P.269-293. DOI: 10.15826/vestnik.2021.20.2.012.
Article info
Received March 14, 2021; Revised April 24, 2021; Accepted May 16, 2021.
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2021.20.2.012
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