Journal of Applied Economic Research
ISSN 2712-7435
The Resilience of Russia's Regions in the Conditions of Recovery Growth: Bouncing Forward or Bouncing Back?
Olga A. Chernova
Southern Federal University, Rostov-on-Don, Russia
Abstract
The recovery growth of regional economies after shocks can be expressed both in a return to the initial state and in a new development trajectory. Many researchers associate the direction of the movement caused by the shock with sectoral transformations, considering structural proportions in the economy as the main factor in regional resilience. This study aims to analyze the recovery growth trajectory of Russian regions in the post-pandemic period, as well as to find out whether shifts in the sectoral structure of their economies have affected it. The hypothesis of the study was the assumption that the vector of regional development is determined by the changes in the sectoral structure of the region that occurred during the crisis. Research methods included: analysis of the deviations of the actual values of GRP and employment indicators from their possible values, defined as a continuation of the trend of economic development in the pre-shock period; comparison of changes in the indicators of the economic development of regions with changes in the growth rates of individual sectors of the economy: industry, agriculture, construction, transport, trade and services. The results of the study showed significant differences in the speed and nature of recovery processes in Russia's regions. The vast majority of regions returned to the pre-shock trajectory of development. At the same time, some regions could not cope with the shocks of the corona crisis and saw their socio-economic situation worsen, while some showed a “leap forward” with higher development indicators. The author comes to the following conclusions: 1) sectoral transformations of the regional economy during the crisis are not decisive in determining the trajectory of the recovery movement and a “favorable” change in the sectoral structure can be neutralized by the influence of other factors; 2) the high vulnerability of the region's economy and its individual industries to shock events does not mean a longer period of recovery growth. From a practical point of view, this is important for understanding what aspects of sustainability may be relevant for the post-crisis recovery of the regional economy. The theoretical significance of the study is expressed in the expansion of ideas about the factors of regional resilience.
Keywords
regional economy; regional resilience; recovery growth; external shock; sectoral structure; coronacrisis; bouncing forward; bouncing back.
JEL classification
R11, O10References
1. Martin, R., Sunley, P. (2015). On the notion of regional economic resilience: Conceptualization and explanation. Journal of Economic Geography, Vol. 15, Issue 1, 1–42. https://doi.org/10.1093 /jeg /lbu015
2. Martin, R. (2012). Regional economic resilience, hysteresis and recessionary shocks. Journal of Economic Geography, Vol. 12, Issue 1, 1–32. https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbr019
3. Ascani, A., Faggian, A., Montresor, S. (2021). The geography of COVID‐19 and the structure of local economies: The case of Italy. Journal of Regional Science, Vol. 61, Issue 2, 407–441. https://doi.org/10.1111/jors.12510
4. Turgel, I.D., Chernova, O.A., Usoltceva, A.A. (2022). Resilience, robustness and adaptivity: Large urban Russian Federation regions during the COVID-19 crisis. Area Development and Policy, Vol. 7, Issue 2, 222–244. https://doi.org/10.1080/23792949.2021.1973522
5. Duan, W., Madasi, J., Khurshid, A., Ma, D. (2022). Industrial structure conditions economic resilience. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 183, 121944. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2022.121944
6. Animitsa, E.G., Novikova, N.V. (2022). Tendentsii ekonomicheskoi dinamiki klassicheskogo staropromyshlennogo regiona Rossii: keis Sverdlovskoi oblasti (Trends in economic dynamics of Russia’s classic old industrial region: The case of the Sverdlovsk Oblast). Journal of New Economy, Vol. 23, N.o 2, 64–79. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.29141/2658-5081-2022-23-2-4
7. Tommaso, M., Prodi, E., Pollio, C., Barbieri, E. (2023). Conceptualizing and measuring “industry resilience”: Composite indicators for postshock industrial policy decision-making. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Vol. 85, 101448. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2022.101448
8. Tan, J., Hu, X., Hassink, R., Ni, J. (2020). Industrial structure or agency: What affects regional economic resilience? Evidence from resource-based cities in China. Cities, Vol. 106, 102906. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2020.102906
9. Hu, Х., Chun, Y. (2019). Institutional change and divergent economic resilience: Path development of two resource-depleted cities in China. Urban Studies, Vol. 56, Issue 16, 3466–3485. https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098018817223
10. Pike, A., Marlow, D., McCarthy, A., O'Brien, P., Tomaney, J. (2015). Local institutions and local economic development: the Local Enterprise Partnerships in England, 2010. Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Vol. 8, Issue 2, 185–204. https://doi.org/10.1093/cjres/rsu030
11. Neffke, F., Henning, M., Boschma, R. (2011). How Do Regions Diversify over Time? Industry Relatedness and the Development of New Growth Paths in Regions. Economic Geography, Vol. 87, Issue 3, 237–265. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1944-8287.2011.01121.x
12. Shearmur, R., Doloreux, D. (2022). Innovation, scaling-up, and local development in peripheral regions: do establishments scale-up locally? ZFW – Advances in Economic Geography, Vol. 66, Issue 4, 185–200. https://doi.org/10.1515/zfw-2022-0028
13. Brown, R., Cowling, M. (2021). The geographical impact of the Covid-19 crisis on precautionary savings, firm survival and jobs: Evidence from the United Kingdom’s 100 largest towns and cities. International Small Business Journal, Vol. 39, Issue 4, 319–329. https://doi.org/10.1177/0266242621989326
14. Sutton, J., Arku, G. (2022). Regional economic resilience: towards a system approach. Regional Studies. Regional Science, Vol. 9, Issue 1, 497–512. https://doi.org/10.1080/21681376.2022.2092418
15. Martin, R. (2018). Shocking aspects of regional development: Towards an economic geography of resilience. In: The New Oxford Handbook of Economic Geography. Edited by G. Clark, M.P. Feldman, M. Gertler, D. Wojcik. Oxford, Oxford University Press, 839–864. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198755609.013.43
16. Bristow G., Healy A. (Eds). (2020). Handbook on Regional Economic Resilience. Cheltenham, Edward Elgar, 320 p. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781785360862
17. Smorodinskaia, N.V., Katukov, D.D. (2021). Rezilientnost ekonomicheskikh sistem v epokhu globalizatsii i vnezapnykh shokov (Resilience of economic systems in the age of globalization and sudden shocks). Vestnik Instituta ekonomiki Rossiiskoi akademii nauk (Bulletin of the IE RAS), No. 5, 93–115. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2021_5_93_115
18. Romanova, O.A., Sirotin, D.V., Ponomareva, A.O. (2022). Ot ekonomiki soprotivleniia – k rezilyentnoi ekonomike (na primere promyshlennogo regiona) (From Resistance Economy to Resilient Economy (the Case of an Industrial Region in Russia)). Alter Economics, Vol. 19, No. 4, 620–637. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31063/AlterEconomics/2022.19-4.4
19. Akberdina, V.V. (2021). Faktory rezilyentnosti v rossiiskoi ekonomike: sravnitel'nyi analiz za period 2000-2020 gg. (Resilience factors in the Russian economy: The comparative analysis for 2000–2020). Natsionalnye interesy: prioritety i bezopasnost (National Interests: Priorities and Security), Vol. 17, Issue 8, 1412–1432. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.24891/ni.17.8.1412
20. Klimanov, V.V., Kazakova, S.M., Mikhailova, A.A. (2019). Retrospektivnyi analiz ustoichivosti regionov Rossii kak sotsial'no-ekonomicheskikh sistem (Retrospective analysis of the resilience of Russian regions as socio-economic systems). Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 5, 46–64. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2019-5-46-64
21. Navarro-Espigares, J.L., Martín-Segura, J.A., Hernández-Torres, E. (2012). The role of the service sector in regional economic resilience. The Service Industries Journal, Vol. 32, Issue 4, 571–590. https://doi.org/10.1080/02642069.2011.596535
22. Malkina, M.Iu. (2020). Otsenka ustoichivosti razvitiia regionalnykh ekonomik na osnove rasstoianii Makhalanobisa (Assessment of resilient development of the regional economies based on Mahalanobis distances). Terra Economicus, Vol. 18, No. 3, 140–159. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.18522/2073-6606-2020-18-3-140-159
23. Rahma, H., Fauzi, A., Juanda, B., Widjojanto, B. (2019). Development of a Composite Measure of Regional Sustainable Development in Indonesia. Sustainability, Vol. 11, Issue 20, 5861. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11205861
24. Morkūnas, M., Volkov, A., Bilan, Y., Raišienė, A. (2018). The role of government in forming agricultural policy: economic resilience measuring index exploited. Administratie si Management Public, Vol. 31, 111–131. https://doi.org/10.24818/amp/2018.31-08
25. Cardoni, A., Noori, A., Greco, R., Cimellaro, G. (2021). Resilience Assessment at The Regional Level Using Census Data. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Vol. 55, 102059. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102059
26. Holling, C.S. (1996). Engineering Resilience Versus Ecological Resilience. In: Engineering within Ecological Constraints. Edited by P.E. Schulze. Washington DC, National Academy Press, 31–43.
27. Soufi, H., Esfahanipour, A., Shirazi, M. (2022). A quantitative approach for analysis of macroeconomic resilience due to socio-economic shocks. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Vol. 79, 101101. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2021.101101
28. Ed-daoui, I., Itmi, M., ELHami, A., Hmina, N. (2021). Systems-of-Systems and Regional Resilience Assessment. In: Complex Systems, Smart Territories and Mobility. Edited by P. Sajous, C. Bertelle. Wiesbaden, Springer, 127–144. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-59302-5_7
29. Van Bergeijk, P., Brakman, S., Van Marrewijk, C. (2017). Heterogeneous economic resilience and the great recession’s world trade collapse. Papers in Regional Science, Vol. 96, Issue 1, 3–12. https://doi.org/10.1111/pirs.12279
30. Kalinina, A.E., Mitrofanova, I.V., Chernova, O.A. (2022). Antikrizisnaia politika iuzhnorossiiskikh regionov v usloviiakh pandemii COVID-19 (Anti-crisis policy of the southern Russian regions in the conditions of the Covid-19 pandemic). Vestnik Volgogradskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seriia 4: Istoriia. Regionovedenie. Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniia (Science Journal of VolSU. History. Area Studies. International Relations), Vol. 27, No. 3, 296–316. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.15688/jvolsu4.2022.3.21
31. Tursunov, B.O. (2022). Otsenka indikatorov vosstanovitel'nogo rosta promyshlennogo proizvodstva v Respublike Uzbekistan v usloviiakh koronakrizisa (Evaluation of the recovery industrial growth indicators in the Republic of Uzbekistan in the conditions of the coronacrisis). Vestnik Instituta ekonomiki Rossiiskoi akademii nauk (Bulletin of the IE RAS), No. 3, 157–181. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2022_3_157_181
32. Lobanov, M.M., Zvezdanovic Lobanova, Je. (2022). Sboi konveiera: vliianie pandemii na promyshlennoe proizvodstvo stran Tsentralno-Vostochnoi i Iugo-Vostochnoi Evropy v 2020–2021 gg. (Conveyor hitch: The influence of Covid-19 pandemic on industrial production in CEE and SEE countries in 2020-2021). Vestnik Instituta ekonomiki Rossiiskoi akademii nauk (Bulletin of the IE RAS), No. 4, 23–49. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.52180/2073-6487_2022_4_23_49
33. Balland, P.-A., Broekel, T., Diodato, D., Giuliani, E., Hausmann, R., O'Clery, N., Rigby, D. (2022). The new paradigm of economic complexity. Research Policy, Vol. 51, Issue 3, 104450. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2021.104450
34. Korosteleva, E.A., Flockhart, T. (2020). Resilience in EU and international institutions: Redefining local ownership in a new global governance agenda. Contemporary Security Policy, Vol. 41, Issue 2, 153–175. https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2020.1723973
35. Hu, X., Li, L., Dong, K. (2021). What matters for regional economic resilience amid COVID-19? Evidence from cities in Northeast China. Cities, Vol. 120, 103440. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2021.103440
36. Simmie, J., Martin, R. (2009). The economic resilience of regions: towards an evolutionary approach. Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Vol. 3, Issue 1, 27–43. https://doi.org/10.1093/cjres/rsp029
37. Kuznetsova, O.V. (2022). Transformatsiia prostranstvennoi struktury ekonomiki v krizisnye i postkrizisnye periody (Spatial structure of the economy transforming during and after crises). Region: Ekonomika i Sotsiologiia (Region: Economics and Sociology), No. 2 (114), 33–57. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.15372/REG20220202
About Authors
Doctor of Economics, Professor, Department of Information Economics, Faculty of Economics, Southern Federal University, Rostov-on-Don, Russia (344006, Rostov-on-Don, Gorkogo street, 88); ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5072-7070 e-mail: chernova.olga71@yandex.ru
For citation
Chernova, O.A. (2023). The Resilience of Russia's Regions in the Conditions of Recovery Growth: Bouncing Forward or Bouncing Back? Journal of Applied Economic Research, Vol. 22, No. 2, 381-403. https://doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2023.22.2.016
Article info
Received February 26, 2023; Revised April 10, 2023; Accepted April 24, 2023.
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2023.22.2.016
Download full text article:
~646 KB, *.pdf
(Uploaded
01.07.2023)
Created / Updated: 2 September 2015 / 20 September 2021
© Federal State Autonomous Educational Institution of Higher Education «Ural Federal University named after the first President of Russia B.N.Yeltsin»
Remarks?
select the text and press:
Ctrl + Enter
Portal design: Artsofte
Contact us
Rector's Office
Rector, Dr. Victor Koksharov
Tel. +7 (343) 375-45-03, e-mail: rector@urfu.ru
Vice-Rector for International Relations, Dr. Maxim Khomyakov
Tel. +7 (343) 375-46-27, e-mail: Maksim.Khomyakov@urfu.ru