Journal of Applied Economic Research
ISSN 2712-7435
Experimental Trajectories of Convergence and Divergence Processes of Russian Regions Population Incomes Inequality
Dmitry B. Berg 1, Daniel M. Balungu 1, Andrei G. Shelomentsev 2, Kseniya S. Goncharova 3
1 Ural Federal University named after the First President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin, Yekaterinburg, Russia
2 Institute of Socio-Economic Research, Ufa, Russia
3 Institute of Economics, The Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russia
Abstract
The study is devoted to the problem of differentiation of incomes of the population of Russia's regions. The goal of the work is to develop a methodology for analyzing the processes of differentiation of incomes of the population in Russia's regions based on the theory of dynamic systems and machine learning, and its testing on recent analytical data. The research hypothesis lies in the assumption of the simultaneous coexistence of processes of convergence and divergence of processes of differentiation of incomes of the population of Russia's regions, depending on external and internal factors. These processes are the subject of the research. The information base is the Federal State Statistics Service's data on the values of the Gini index of 80 regions for the period from 1995 to 2018. To construct experimental trajectories, in addition to the Gini index, two independent dynamic variables were used - its first and second derivatives, which made it possible to construct 3 different spaces of states (from one-dimensional to three-dimensional). Using the k-means clustering method, the entire observed set of states was divided into 5 clusters, the number of which was previously determined by the “elbow method” test. As a result of the calculations, the predominance of convergent processes over divergent ones during the studied period was proven. It was found that the individual trajectories of certain regions in the space of state differ significantly: the trajectories of some regions can be localized within only one cluster, while some parts of the trajectories of others can belong to up to 4 clusters. The majority of the trajectories are located within 2-3 clusters. The theoretical significance of the results obtained lies in deepening the understanding of the regional specifics of the dynamic changes in the differentiation of income of the population of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The practical significance of the research results lies in the expansion of instrumental support for decision-making in the implementation of the state policy in the field of regulating the differentiation of income of the population at the regional level.
Keywords
machine learning; clustering; theory of dynamic systems; space of states; experimental trajectories; territorial disproportions; differentiation of living standards; convergence/divergence of incomes.
JEL classification
R1, C61References
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Acknowledgements
Исследование выполнено при поддержке гранта Российского научного фонда № 22–28-01702 «Экспериментальные траектории процессов пространственной конвергенции и дивергенции доходов населения регионов России в условиях их адаптации к динамичным изменениям».
About Authors
Dmitry Borisovich Berg
Doctor of Physics and Mathematics, Professor, Basic Department of Big Data Analytics and Video Analysis Methods, Institute of Radioelectronics and Information Technologies, Ural Federal University named after the first President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin, Yekaterinburg, Russia (620002, Yekaterinburg, Mira street, 19); ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7703-9750 e-mail: bergd@mail.ru
Daniel Musafiri Balungu
Assistant, Basic Department of Big Data Analytics and Video Analysis Methods, Institute of Radioelectronics and Information Technologies, Ural Federal University named after the first President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin, Yekaterinburg, Russia (620002, Yekaterinburg, Mira street, 19); ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0001-5098-7603 e-mail: danielbal03.db@gmail.com
Andrei Gennad’evich Shelomentsev
Doctor of Economics, Professor, Chief Researcher, The Institute of Socio-Economic Research – A Separate Structural Unit of the Federal State Budgetary Scientific Institution of the Ufa Federal Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ISEI UFITs RAS), Ufa, Russia (450054, Ufa, Oktyabrya Avenue, 71); ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1904-9587 e-mail: a.shelom@yandex.ru
Kseniya Sergeevna Goncharova
Candidate of Economic Sciences, Researcher, Institute of Economics, The Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russia (620014, Yekaterinburg, Moskovskaya street, 29); ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2381-3322 e-mail: ksenia.gon4arowa@gmail.com
For citation
The study was financially supported by the Russian Science Foundation as part of a research project № 22-28-01702 «Experimental trajectories of convergence and divergence of Russian population's spatial income differentiation in the context of adaptation to dynamic changes».
Article info
Berg, D.B., Balungu, D.M., Shelomentsev, A.G., Goncharova, K.S. (2024). Experimental Trajectories of Convergence and Divergence Processes of Russian Regions Population Incomes Inequality. Journal of Applied Economic Research, Vol. 23, No. 2, 364-393. doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2024.23.2.015
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2024.23.2.015
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