Factors Influencing Life Expectancy in Low-Income Countries: A Panel Data Analysis

Emmanouil Taxiarchis Gazilas

University of Piraeus, Piraeus, Greece

Abstract

Understanding the factors influencing life expectancy in low-income countries is crucial for formulating effective health and economic policies. This study aims to explore the determinants of life expectancy in these countries by analyzing panel data from 2004 to 2021. The hypothesis posits that economic indicators, healthcare expenditure, and agricultural land significantly affect life expectancy, while high HIV prevalence negatively impacts it. The research procedure involved using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression analysis with life expectancy at birth as the dependent variable and GDP per capita (PPP, constant 2021 international $), government health expenditure per capita (current international $), agricultural land (% of land area), HIV prevalence (% of population ages 15–49), and current health expenditure per capita (current international $) as independent variables. The main results indicate that GDP per capita, government health expenditure, and agricultural land positively influence life expectancy, highlighting the importance of economic growth, healthcare investment, and food security. In contrast, HIV prevalence has a significant negative effect on life expectancy, underscoring the health burden of the epidemic. Statistical tests for heteroskedasticity and normality reveal some deviations, but the robustness of the analysis is maintained through appropriate econometric techniques. Theoretically, this study contributes to the literature by providing a nuanced understanding of how economic and health-related factors interact to affect life expectancy in low-income countries. Practically, the findings suggest that policies aimed at boosting economic growth, increasing healthcare spending, improving agricultural practices, and addressing HIV/AIDS are vital for enhancing life expectancy. This research offers valuable insights for policymakers in low-income countries striving to improve population health outcomes.

Keywords

life expectancy; low-income countries; health expenditure; GDP per capita; HIV prevalence

JEL classification

References

1. Preston, S.H. (1975). The changing relation between mortality and level of economic development. Population Studies, Vol. 29, Issue 2, 231–248. https://doi.org/10.2307/2173509

         2. Bloom, D.E., Canning, D. (2000). The health and wealth of nations. Science, Vol. 287, No. 5456, 1207–1209. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.287.5456.1207

         3. Pritchett, L., Summers, L.H. (1996). Wealthier is healthier. Journal of Human Resources, Vol. 31, No. 4, 841–868. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/146149

         4. Deaton, A. (2013). The Great Escape: Health, Wealth, and the Origins of Inequality. Princeton University Press, 376 p. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctt3fgxbm

         5. Gupta, S., Verhoeven, M. (2001). The efficiency of government expenditure: Experiences from Africa. Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 23, Issue 4, 433–467. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0161-8938(00)00036-3

         6. Sachs, J.D. (2002). Macroeconomics and health: investing in health for economic development. Revista Panamericana de Salud Pública, Vol. 12, Issue 2, 143–144. https://doi.org/10.1590/S1020-49892002000800017

         7. Bokhari, F.A., Gai, Y., Gottret, P. (2007). Government health expenditures and health outcomes. Health Economics, Vol. 16, Issue 3, 257–273. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/hec.1157

         8. Anyanwu, J.C., Erhijakpor, A.E. (2009). Health expenditures and health outcomes in Africa. African Development Review, Vol. 21, Issue 2, 400–433. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8268.2009.00215.x

         9. Novignon, J., Olakojo, S.A., Nonvignon, J. (2012). The effects of public and private health care expenditure on health status in sub-Saharan Africa: New evidence from panel data analysis. Health Economics Review, Vol. 2, 22. https://doi.org/10.1186/2191-1991-2-22

         10. Farag, M., Nandakumar, A.K., Wallack, S., Gaumer, G., Hodgkin, D., Erbil, C. (2013). Health expenditures, health outcomes and the role of good governance. International Journal of Health Care Finance and Economics, Vol. 13, 33–52. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10754-012-9120-3

         11. Wagstaff, A., Claeson, M. (2004). The Millennium Development Goals for Health: Rising to the Challenges. The World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/0-8213-5767-0

         12. Rajkumar, A.S., Swaroop, V. (2008). Public spending and outcomes: Does governance matter? Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 86, Issue 1, 96–111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2007.08.003

         13. World Bank. (2018). World Development Indicators 2018. Washington, DC: World Bank, 94 p. Available at: https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/630671538158537244/pdf/The-World-Bank-Annual-Report-2018.pdf

         14. Maxwell, S., Smith, M. (1992). Household Food Security: A Conceptual Review. IFAD, 72 p.. Available at: https://www.drcsc.org/resources/FoodSecurity-Concept%20of%20Food%20Security2.pdf

         15. Pingali, P. (2012). Green revolution: Impacts, limits, and the path ahead. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 109, No. 31, 12302–12308. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0912953109

         16. Bezuneh, M., Deaton, B.J., Norton, G.W. (1988). Food aid impacts in rural Kenya. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 70, Issue 1, 181–191. https://doi.org/10.2307/1241988

         17. Sahn, D.E., Stifel, D. (2002). Parental preferences for nutrition of boys and girls: Evidence from Africa. Journal of Development Studies, Vol. 39, Issue 1, 21–45. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220380412331322651

         18. Alderman, H., Hoddinott, J., Kinsey, B. (2006). Long term consequences of early childhood malnutrition. Oxford Economic Papers, Vol. 58, Issue 3, 450–474. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpl008

         19. UNAIDS. (2019). Global AIDS Update 2019. Geneva, UNAIDS, 476 p. Available at: https://www.unaids.org/sites/default/files/media_asset/2019-UNAIDS-data_en.pdf

         20. Trickey, A., May, M.T., Vehreschild, J.J., et al. (2017). Survival of HIV-positive patients starting antiretroviral therapy between 1996 and 2013: A collaborative analysis of cohort studies. The Lancet HIV, Vol. 4, Issue 8, e349–e356. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2352-3018(17)30066-8tg

         21. De Walque, D. (2006). Who gets AIDS and how? The determinants of HIV infection and sexual behaviors in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya, and Tanzania. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper. No. 3844. Washington, DC, World Bank, 51 p. https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-3844

         22. Fox, M.P., Rosen, S. (2010). Patient retention in antiretroviral therapy programs up to three years on treatment in sub-Saharan Africa, 2007–2009: Systematic review. Tropical Medicine & International Health, Vol. 15, Issue s1, 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3156.2010.02508.x

         23. Bor, J., Herbst, A.J., Newell, M.L., Bärnighausen, T. (2013). Increases in adult life expectancy in rural South Africa: Valuing the scale-up of HIV treatment. Science, Vol. 339, No. 6122, 961–965. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1230413

         24. Nixon, J., Ulmann, P. (2006). The relationship between health care expenditure and health outcomes. European Journal of Health Economics, Vol. 7, 7–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10198-005-0336-8

         25. Pongou, R., Salomon, J.A., Ezzati, M. (2006). Health impacts of macroeconomic crises and policies: determinants of variation in childhood malnutrition trends in Cameroon. International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 35, Issue 3, 648–656. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyl016

         26. Anand, S., Ravallion, M. (1993). Human Development in Poor Countries: On the Role of Private Incomes and Public Services. Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 7, No. 1, 133–150. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.7.1.133

         27. Cutler, D.M., Deaton, A.S., Lleras-Muney, A. (2006). The Determinants of Mortality. Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 20, No. 3, 97–120. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.20.3.97

         28. Houweling, T.A., Kunst, A.E., Mackenbach, J.P. (2003). Measuring health inequality among children in developing countries: does the choice of the indicator of economic status matter? International Journal for Equity in Health, Vol. 2, 8. https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-9276-2-8

         29. Jamison, D.T., Summers, L.H., Alleyne, G., et al. (2013). Global health 2035: a world converging within a generation. The Lancet, Vol. 382, No. 9908, 1898–1955. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(13)62105-4

         30. O'Donnell, O., Van Doorslaer, E., Wagstaff, A., Lindelow, M. (2008). Analyzing Health Equity Using Household Survey Data: A Guide to Techniques and Their Implementation. Washington, D.C., World Bank, 221 p. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-6933-3

         31. Reyes, A.M., Cornia, G.A. (2020). The impact of structural adjustment policies on health outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa: 1980–2000. Review of African Political Economy, Vol. 47, Issue 163, 61–79. https://doi.org/10.1080/03056244.2019.1653287

         32. Schultz, T.P. (1999). Health and schooling investments in Africa. Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 13, No. 3, 67–88. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.13.3.67

         33. Smith, J.P. (1999). Healthy Bodies and Thick Wallets: The Dual Relation between Health and Economic Status. Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 13, No. 2, 145–166. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.13.2.145

         34. Strauss, J., Thomas, D. (1998). Health, Nutrition, and Economic Development. Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 36, Issue 2, 766–817. https://doi.org/10.2307/2565122

         35. Wang, L. (2002). Determinants of Child Mortality in LDCs: Empirical Findings from Demographic and Health Surveys. Health Policy, Vol. 65, Issue 3, 277–299. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0168-8510(03)00039-3

About Authors

Emmanouil Taxiarchis Gazilas

Academic Researcher, Economics Student, Department of Economics, School of Economics, Business & International Studies, University of Piraeus, Piraeus, Greece (Karaoli & Dimitriou 80, Piraeus 185 34, Greece); ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0003-0554-500X e-mail: mgazilas@unipi.gr

For citation

Gazilas, E.T. (2024). Factors Influencing Life Expectancy in Low-Income Countries: A Panel Data Analysis. Journal of Applied Economic Research, Vol. 23, No. 3, 580-601. https://doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2024.23.3.023

Article info

Received June 3, 2024; Revised June 22, 2024; Accepted July 10, 2024

DOI: https://doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2024.23.3.023

Download full text article: