Forecasting and Assessing the Impact of Direct Tax Risks on the Short-Term Financial Policy of a Russian Vertically Integrated Oil Company

Zakhar A. Saranin, Angi Y. Shvediani

Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, Saint-Petersburg, Russia

Abstract

Risk modeling and assessment are an integral part of companies' activities. This is especially important in the context of assessing the impact of various risks on the performance of Russian companies that account for a signification portion of state revenue in the country. In this regard, it is relevant to assess the impact of direct tax risks on the short-term financial policy of a vertically integrated oil company using the author's methodology. The proposed methodology is based on the use of the Monte Carlo probabilistic modeling method, the Prophet time series forecasting tool and financial analysis methods. At the first stage, time series forecasting is carried out for the parameters that determine the greatest variability in the amount of the mining tax. Next, the most likely outcomes for each parameter are modeled using the Monte Carlo probabilistic modeling method. At the third stage, considering the calculations obtained earlier, the amount of the mineral extraction tax for each time is calculated as part of the short-term financial policy of the vertically integrated oil company Gazprom Neft PJSC. At the fourth stage, the planned financial indicators of the company are calculated using trend analysis. At the final stage, the impact of tax risks on the short-term financial policy of the oil company is assessed by recalculating financial indicators. As a result, tax risks were modeled for Gazprom Neft in the short term, problems that would arise as a result of the implementation of these tax risks were identified, and recommendations were made on how to neutralize and mitigate them. According to the results of the analysis of the structure of the mining tax, it was observed that the most significant variability for it is set by the change in the price of Urals crude oil, the US dollar exchange rate, and the average price of an export alternative for diesel and gasoline fuels of class 5. The results also show that the integration of direct tax risk assessment into the short-term financial planning process makes it possible to not only minimize the negative impact of potential changes in the tax burden but also optimize internal cash flow management processes.

Keywords

risk modeling; tax risks; vertically integrated oil company; short-term financial policy; forecasting and risk assessment

JEL classification

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Acknowledgements

The research was financed as part of the project “Development of a methodology for instrumental base formation for analysis and modelling of the spatial socio-economic development of systems based on internal reserves in the context of digitalization” (FSEG–2023–0008)

About Authors

Zakhar Alekseevich Saranin

Master Student, Higher School of Engineering and Economics, Institute of Industrial Management of Economics and Trade, Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, Saint-Petersburg, Russia (195251, Saint-Petersburg, Polytechnicheskaya street, 29); ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0007-8187-7347 e-mail: midway_ht@mail.ru

Angi Erastievich Skhvediani

Candidate of Economic Sciences, Head of Scientific Research Laboratory «System Dynamics», Associate Professor, Higher School of Engineering and Economics of the Institute of Industrial Management of Economics and Trade, Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, Saint-Petersburg, Russia (195251, Saint-Petersburg, Polytechnicheskaya street, 29); ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7171-7357 e-mail: shvediani_ae@spbstu.ru

For citation

Saranin, Z.A., Skhvediani, A.E. (2025). Forecasting and Assessing the Impact of Direct Tax Risks on the Short-Term Financial Policy of a Russian Vertically Integrated Oil Company. Journal of Applied Economic Research, Vol. 24, No. 2, 654-684. https://doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2025.24.2.022

Article info

Received March 17, 2025; Revised April 18, 2025; Accepted April 28, 2025.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2025.24.2.022

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