The Influence of Demographic Processes on Social Dynamics in Developed Countries

Ksenia A. Subkhangulova

Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), Moscow, Russia

Abstract

The relevance of the study stems from the urgency of demographic challenges in modern developed states, as well as the significance of their impact on the social well-being of the population. The research objective is to identify causal relationships between demographic and social dynamics. The hypothesis suggests that an increase in socio-demographic indicators such as natural population change rate, life expectancy, and demographic dividends will have a positive effect on the Social Progress Index (SPI). The study employs regression analysis of panel data. The methodology is based on the theory of demographic transition and combines the use of methods of comparative theoretical with statistical and econometric analysis of data from international organizations and the expert community. The results show a more significant impact of demographic indicators on the SPI. Variables such as life expectancy, the consumption-income gap among the elderly and the first dividend index have a direct impact on the SPI. The rate of natural change has exhibited an inverse relationship for the index. The interpretation of the obtained estimates suggests a positive impact of increased life expectancy on further social development - likely driven by the high level of development of health care and education systems in developed countries. The study also highlights the benefits of the first demographic dividend in the social sphere, while indicating a disconnect with the second demographic dividend. Furthermore, the study underscores the potential for improving social security even under conditions of depopulation and cautions against premature assumptions about the active participation of older people (65+) in improving social progress. The theoretical contribution of this research lies in complementing studies on social development by quantifying the impact of demographic factors. The practical significance lies in the fact that the results of the study can be used to further, in-depth analysis of the influence of various factors on social development in the context of individual countries, as well as in the design of social policy of the state, taking into account the evolving demographic reality.

Keywords

Social Progress Index; life expectancy; rate of natural change; demographic dividend index; social and economic dynamics.

JEL classification

References

1. Alam, S.A., Pörtner, C.C. (2018). Income shocks, contraceptive use, and timing of fertility. Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 131, 96–103. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2017.10.007

          2. Gallego, F., Lafortune, J. (2023). Baby commodity booms? The impact of commodity shocks on fertility decisions and outcomes. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 36, 295–320. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-021-00855-0

          3. Brueckner, M., Schwandt, H. (2015). Income and Population Growth. The Economic Journal, Vol. 125, Issue 589, 1653–1676. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12152

          4. Lindo, J.M. (2010). Are Children Really Inferior Goods? Journal of Human Resources, Vol. 45, Issue 2, 301–327. https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.45.2.301

          5. Lovenheim, M.F., Mumford, K.J. (2013). Do Family Wealth Shocks Affect Fertility Choices? Evidence from the Housing Market. The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 95, Issue 2, 464–475. https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00266

          6. Țarcă, V., Țarcă, E., Luca, F.-A. (2022). The Impact of the Main Negative Socio-Economic Factors on Female Fertility. Healthcare, Vol. 10, Issue 4, 734. https://doi.org/10.3390/healthcare10040734

          7. Hailemariam, A. (2024). Income and differential fertility: evidence from oil price shocks. Journal of Demographic Economics, Vol. 90, Issue 1, 31–54. https://doi.org/10.1017/dem.2022.8

          8. Gradstein, M., Ishak, P. (2022). Mother Africa's Exceptionalism? Income and Fertility Redux. IZA Discussion Paper, No. 15265. Institute of Labor Economics, 43 p. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4114848

          9. Reher, D. (2011). Economic and Social Implications of the Demographic Transition. Population and Development Review, Vol. 37, Issue s1, 11–33. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2011.00376.x

          10. Vishnevsky, A.G. (2017). Unsolved problems in the theory of demographic revolution. Population and Economics, Vol. 1, No. 1, 3–21. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.3897/popecon.1.e36030

          11. Bloom, D.E., Williamson J.G. (1998). Demographic transitions and economic miracles in Emerging Asia. World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 12, Issue 3, 419–455. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/wber/12.3.419

          12. Kotschy, R., Bloom, D.E. (2023). Population aging and economic growth: from demographic dividend to demographic drag? CESifo Working Papers, No. 10613. Munich Society for the Promotion of Economic Research – CESifo, 60 p. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4554877

          13. Bloom, D.E., Canning, D., Hu, L., Liu, Y., Mahal, A., Yip, W. (2010). The contribution of population health and demographic change to economic growth in China and India. Journal of Comparative Economics, Vol. 38, Issue 1, 17–33. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2009.11.002

          14. Maitra, B., Ganguli, D. (2024). Impact of fertility decline, gender, and social development on economic growth in India. Journal of Social and Economic Development. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40847-024-00345-5

          15. Cruz, M., Ahmed, S.A. (2018). On the impact of demographic change on economic growth and poverty. World Development, Vol. 105, 95–106. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.12.018

          16. Cervellati, M., Sunde, U. (2009). Life expectancy and economic growth: the role of the demographic transition. IZA Discussion Paper, No. 4160. The Institute for the Study of Labor, 51 p. Available at: https://docs.iza.org/dp4160.pdf

          17. Kalabikhina, I.E., Kazbekova, Z.G. (2022). The impact of the first demographic dividend on economic growth considering human capital. Journal of the New Economic Association, No. 3, 81–100. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2022-55-3-5

          18. Aiyar, S., Mody, A. (2011). The demographic dividend: evidence from the Indian States. IMF Working Papers, No. 2011/038. International Monetary Fund, 31 p. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781455217885.001

          19. Dasgupta, P. (2000). Population and resources: an exploration of reproductive and environmental externalities. Population and Development Review, Vol. 26, Issue 4, 643–689. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2000.00643.x

          20. Ranganathan, S., Swain, R., Sumpter, D. (2015). The demographic transition and economic growth: implications for development policy. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Vol. 1, 15033. https://doi.org/10.1057/palcomms.2015.33

          21. Japaridze, I. (2019). Envy, inequality and fertility. Review of Economics of the Household, Vol. 17, 923–945. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11150-018-9427-z

          22. Wu, W., Zhao, X. (2024). Income inequality and fertility behavior: an empirical study on China. Journal of Advanced Computational Intelligence and Intelligent Informatics, Vol. 28, No. 4, 816–828. https://doi.org/10.20965/jaciii.2024.p0816

          23. Forcadell-Díez, L., Gotsens, M., Leon-Gomez, B.B. (2020). Social inequalities in fertility in women residing in urban neighbourhoods in Spain: a multilevel approach. Maternal and Child Health Journal, Vol. 24, 267–274. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10995-020-02875-w

          24. Anson, J., Bartl, W., Kulczycki, A. (2019). Roots and fruits of population growth and social structures: demographic and sociological vistas: International perspectives. In: Studies in the Sociology of Population. Edited by J. Anson, W. Bartl, A, Kulczycki. Springer Cham, 1–24. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-94869-0_1

          25. Shome, P. (2023). Population, poverty and happiness. In: The Creation of Poverty and Inequality in India: Exclusion, Isolation, Domination and Extraction. Bristol University Press, 53–74. https://doi.org/10.46692/9781529230406.005

          26. Ewugi, M.S., Yakubu, I. (2012). Malthusian population theory and the nigerian economy: a political economy approach. International Journal of Human Resource Studies, Vol. 2, No. 4, 197–206. https://doi.org/10.5296/ijhrs.v2i4.2867

          27. House, W.J., Zimalirana, G. (1992). Rapid population growth and poverty generation in Malawi. The Journal of Modern African Studies, Vol. 30, Issue 1, 141–161. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022278X0000776X

          28. Li, H., Zhang, J. (2007). Do high birth rates hamper economic growth? The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 89, Issue 1, 110–117. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.89.1.110

          29. Oded, G., Weil, D.N. (2000). Population, technology, and growth: from Malthusian stagnation to the demographic transition and beyond. American Economic Review, Vol. 90, No. 4, 806–828. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.90.4.806

          30. Kapitsa, S. (1998). Population growth and its mathematical model. Science and Life, No. 3. (In Russ.). Available at: https://www.nkj.ru/archive/articles/10393/?ysclid=ly0c3f4hoe756819458

          31. Samways, D. (2022). Population and sustainability: reviewing the relationship between population growth and environmental change. The Journal of Population and Sustainability, Vol. 6, No. 1, 15–41. https://doi.org/10.3197/JPS.63772239426891

          32. Barnett, L.D. (2023). Impacts of Human Population Size and Growth: Recent Research. In: The Biosphere and Human Society: Understanding Systems, Law, and Population Growth. Bristol University Press, 19–26. https://doi.org/10.46692/9781529232509.003

          33. Babiso, B., Toma, S., Madalcho, A. (2020). Population growth and environmental changes: conclusions drawn from the contradictory experiences of developing countries. International Journal of Environmental Monitoring and Analysis, Vol. 8, Issue 5, 161–169. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijema.20200805.15

          34. Wietzke, F.-B. (2020). Poverty, inequality, and fertility: The contribution of demographic change to global poverty reduction. Population and Development Review, Vol. 46, Issue 1, 65–99. https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12317

          35. Tsapenko, I.P., Subkhangulova, K.A. (2024). Demographic factor of social development. Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Vol. 94, No. 11, 977–988. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31857/S0869587324110023

          36. Mason, A., Lee, R., Abrigo, M., Lee, S.-H. (2017). Support ratios and demographic dividends: estimates for the World. Technical Paper, No. 2017/1. New York, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 45 p. Available at: https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/technical/TP2017-1.pdf

About Authors

Ksenia Almirovna Subkhangulova

Candidate of Economic Sciences, Research Associate, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia (117997, Moscow, Profsoyuznaya street, 23); ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8251-001X e-mail: ksubkhangulova@yandex.ru

For citation

Subkhangulova, K.A. (2025). The Influence of Demographic Processes on Social Dynamics in Developed Countries. Journal of Applied Economic Research, Vol. 24, No. 3, 816-842. https://doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2025.24.3.027

Article info

Received February 7, 2025; Revised February 28, 2025; Accepted April 16, 2025.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2025.24.3.027

Download full text article: