Spatial and Econometric Modeling of the Impact of Regional Innovation Policy on the Development of Manufacturing Industries in Russia

Yuliya G. Myslyakova, Aleksandr V. Martynenko, Natalya A. Matushkina

Institute of Economics, The Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russia

Abstract

In the context of the national orientation towards achieving technological sovereignty of the state, the regional innovation policy implemented by the subjects of the Russian Federation is of scientific interest. The purpose of the study is to identify the spatial effects of regional innovation policy, proving not only the influential function of institutions, but also the connecting role in ensuring the spatial development of the national economy. The methodological basis of the work was the spatial econometric model SDM, which establishes the relationship between the output of manufacturing industries and various indicators of socio-economic development of regions, taking into account their spatial lags. The explanatory variables in the model are the quality index of innovation policy, as well as indicators characterizing labor resources, investment potential, research potential, infrastructural security and the natural resource base. The empirical basis of the study was panel data on 83 regions of Russia for 2010-2022. As the main results of the study, it was found that the quality index of regional innovation policy demonstrates a steady positive impact on the output of manufacturing industries localized in other regions. It is recorded that, along with institutional factors, transport infrastructure and capital investments play an important role in shaping spatial effects, strengthening the connecting role of innovation policy in ensuring the spatial development of the national economy. It is determined that the most sensitive are: North-western and North Ural regions with a high degree of dependence on inter-regional institutional and transport links; The Volga and Ural regions bordering Kazakhstan, whose innovation and industrial dynamics are determined by external factors, and the Far Eastern northern territories, which respond to even small external institutional fluctuations. The regions of Central Russia, as well as the city of St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region, are resistant and unsusceptible to external institutional changes. The southern part of Siberia and the Far East have low sensitivity. The proposed ranking and zoning of the economic space of the Russian Federation prove the connecting function of regional innovation policy and are intended for public authorities and local governments to develop strategic solutions aimed at strengthening the development of the manufacturing industry in industrially developed regions.

Keywords

econometric modeling; innovation policy; manufacturing industry; regional institutions; spatial effects; GNS model; economic development; regions.

JEL classification

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Acknowledgements

The article was carried out within the framework of the state assignment of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation for the Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences for 2025, research topic No. 0327-2024-0015 "Methodology for the formation of a new model of sustainable and economically safe spatial development of industrial regions".

About Authors

Yuliya Gennadyevna Myslyakova

Candidate of Economic Sciences, Head of the Laboratory of Economic Genetics of the Regions, Institute of Economics, The Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russia (620014, Yekaterinburg, Moskovskaya street, 29); ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7635-3601 e-mail: mysliakova.ug@uiec.ru

Aleksandr Valerievich Martynenko

Candidate of Physico-mathematical Sciences, Associate Professor, Senior Researcher, Institute of Economics, The Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russia (620014, Yekaterinburg, Moskovskaya street, 29); ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4701-6398 e-mail: amartynenko@rambler.ru

Natalya Aleksandrovna Matushkina

Candidate of Economic Sciences, Senior Researcher, Institute of Economics, The Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russia (620014, Yekaterinburg, Moskovskaya street, 29); ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2484-7041 e-mail: matushkina.na@uiec.ru

For citation

Myslyakova, Yu.G., Martynenko A.G., Matushkina, N.A. (2025). Spatial and Econometric Modeling of the Impact of Regional Innovation Policy on the Development of Manufacturing Industries in Russia. Journal of Applied Economic Research, Vol. 24, No. 4, 1312-1342. https://doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2025.24.4.043

Article info

Received September 16, 2025; Revised October 6, 2025; Accepted October 10, 2025.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2025.24.4.043

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