Mineral Criticality Meets Energy Security: Quantifying the Import Dependency-Energy Transition Nexus in Advanced Clean Energy Economies

Md. Monirul Islam

Ural Federal University named after the First President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin, Yekaterinburg, Russia
University of Dhaka, Dhaka, Bangladesh

Abstract

The global expansion of clean energy systems has significantly increased advanced economies' demand for critical minerals, raising concerns about trade dependency and supply security. This study examines how renewable energy installation capacity affects critical mineral import dependency in nine major renewable energy–producing advanced economies from 1990 to 2023, controlling for mineral and oil prices, exchange rates, economic growth, and geopolitical risks. To account for heterogeneous effects across market conditions, the analysis employs the Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MM-QR). The results reveal a consistently positive and significant relationship between renewable capacity and mineral imports across all quantiles, confirming the import-intensive nature of the clean energy transition. This effect is strongest in lower quantiles (slack markets) and moderates during import booms. Mineral prices exhibit regime-dependent effects, negatively impacting imports in slack markets but showing a positive relationship in booming conditions. Oil prices demonstrate a complementary effect, while exchange rates exert a negative influence, consistent with trade theory. Economic growth robustly stimulates import demand, whereas geopolitical risks persistently suppress mineral trade flows across all market states. The findings are robust to bootstrap quantile regression, Driscoll-Kraay standard errors, and high-dimensional fixed effects. Theoretically, the study extends trade theory by integrating geopolitical risk into an adapted Heckscher-Ohlin framework. A resilient policy framework must integrate counter-cyclical strategic stockpiling during slack markets, pursue diversified sourcing and allied "critical minerals club" cooperation to mitigate geopolitical risks, and accelerate innovation in material efficiency and recycling to fundamentally reduce long-term import dependency, thereby securing a sustainable energy transition.

Keywords

mineral trade; energy transition; mineral and oil prices; economic growth; exchange rates; geopolitics; advanced nations.

JEL classification

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Acknowledgements

This study acknowledges Ural Federal University’s project within the Priority-2030 Program.

About Authors

Md. Monirul Islam

Researcher, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University named after the first President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin, Yekaterinburg, Russia (620002, Yekaterinburg, Mira street, 19); Assistant Professor, Bangladesh Institute of Governance and Management, University of Dhaka, Dhaka, Bangladesh (E-33, Sher-E-Bangla Nagar, Agargaon, Dhaka – 1207); ORCID orcid.org/0000-0002-9818-1676 e-mail: monirul.islam@bigm.edu.bd

For citation

Islam, M.M. (2026). Mineral Criticality Meets Energy Security: Quantifying the Import Dependency-Energy Transition Nexus in Advanced Clean Energy Economies. Journal of Applied Economic Research, Vol. 25, No. 1, 6-43. doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2026.25.1.001

Article info

Received January 5, 2026; Revised January 21, 2026; Accepted January 28, 2026.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2026.25.1.001

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