Risk-Based Approaches in Tax Control in Different Countries: Impact on the Certainty of Tax Participants' Behavior

Iulia E. Labunets 1, Igor A. Mayburov 2,3, Oleg V. Bazhenov 2, Ekaterina S. Makarova 1, Daria S. Dvoynina 1, Irina S. Nazarova 1

1 Tomsk State University of Control Systems and Radioelectronics, Tomsk, Russia
2 Ural Federal University named after the First President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin, Yekaterinburg, Russia
3 Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia

Abstract

The objective of this study was to determine the impact of general characteristics of a risk-based approach on the certainty of tax participants' behavior. This study utilized systematic review methods, economic and mathematical modeling, and game theory. The PRISMA methodology was used to conduct systematic reviews. This methodology involves searching databases for articles of interest using keywords. Of the 4,585 articles identified for the period 2013–2025, 38 studies were included in the qualitative synthesis after completing the identification, selection, and eligibility screening stages. The search for sources was conducted on ResearchGate and Scopus platforms. Based on the results of the systematic review, the risk-based approach mechanism is presented as a system of three interrelated elements: the organization of tax risk assessment, the prevention mechanism, and the tax risk avoidance mechanism. The selected scientific papers include studies of risk-based approaches in tax control systems in 15 countries. In analyzing the qualitative data obtained, we formulated characteristics common to all the countries studied for each element of the risk-based approach to tax control. To study taxpayer behavior under various risk-based tax control systems, we applied game theory, specifically the zero-sum antagonist game model, as the most appropriate way to characterize tax relations between the state and taxpayers. It should be noted that the zero-sum antagonist game model includes different behavioral strategies depending on certain conditions. This condition is represented by the parameter of uncertainty in the participants' behavior. Using the Fechner coefficient, we established the relationship between these parameters and each of the formulated general characteristics of the risk-based approach. The cross-country model, formed in the form of a system of mathematical equations based on the identified relationships, confirms the hypothesis posed in this study.

Keywords

risk; tax behavior; assessment; countries; risk-based approach; comparison; game theory; strategy; systematic review.

JEL classification

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank the reviewers for their suggestions and comments, which provided very scientific guidance for this study.

The article was prepared based on the results of research carried out at the expense of budgetary funds under the state assignment of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.

About Authors

Ekaterina Sergeevna Makarova

Student, Faculty of Security, Tomsk State University of Control Systems and Radioelectronics, Tomsk, Russia (634050, Tomsk, Lenin prospekt, 40); ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0009-1225-3391 e-mail: makkat29@gmail.com

Daria Sergeevna Dvoynina

Student, Faculty of Security, Tomsk State University of Control Systems and Radioelectronics, Tomsk, Russia (634050, Tomsk, Lenin prospekt, 40); ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0001-2328-9359 email: dashadvoynina@gmail.com

Irina Sergeevna Nazarova

Student, Faculty of Security, Tomsk State University of Control Systems and Radioelectronics, Tomsk, Russia (634050, Tomsk, Lenin prospekt, 40); ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0007-2551-5093 email: irina_nazarova2004@mail.ru

For citation

Labunets, I.E., Mayburov, I.A., Bazhenov, O.V., Makarova, E.S., Dvoynina, D.S.. Nazarova, I.S. (2026). Risk-Based Approaches in Tax Control in Different Countries: Impact on the Certainty of Tax Participants' Behavior. Journal of Applied Economic Research, Vol. 25, No. 1, 74-104. https://doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2026.25.1.003

Article info

Received October 19, 2025; Revised November 4, 2025; Accepted December 30, 2025.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2026.25.1.003

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