Assessment of Spatial Heterogeneity in the Development of Industrial Potential in the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation

Ilya V. Naumov, Anna A. Salomatova

Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia

Abstract

The Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF) is a strategically significant territory that plays a key role in ensuring the spatial development of the national economy and in implementing the long-term priorities of the country's socio-economic development. The high spatial heterogeneity of resource distribution across the AZRF intensifies the fragmented development and realization of its industrial potential, leading to a deepening of the already significant differentiation in the socio-economic development of its municipalities. Therefore, when assessing the industrial potential of the AZRF, it is necessary to apply spatial analysis methods, such as P. Moran's autocorrelation, to identify growth poles-territories with a high level of industrial potential development that form spatial clusters-and their zones of influence, as well as methods for assessing resource concentration and studying the growth dynamics of industrial potential elements within territorial systems. The information base consisted of official statistical data for the municipalities of the AZRF for the period 2009–2024, reflecting the level of concentration of industrial potential elements in territorial systems and their development dynamics. The research hypothesis was the assumption that the spatial heterogeneity of industrial potential development in the AZRF is due to the uneven distribution of its key elements: investment and labor resources. The results of the study indicate the presence of stable spatial clusters of industrial development, forming primarily large mineral extraction centers endowed with investment and labor resources, and the established zones of their influence on the surrounding space. Simultaneously, a significant number of municipalities with low industrial potential growth dynamics were identified, caused by insufficient concentration of investments attracted by enterprises into fixed capital and of the workforce, as well as a persistent downward trend in these indicators. The practical value of this work lies in the fact that its conclusions and quantitative assessments can be applied in the formation and updating of strategic documents on the spatial development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, as well as in the development of measures for state industrial and investment policy.

Keywords

industrial potential; Arctic; spatial heterogeneity; municipalities; Moran's index.

JEL classification

References

1. Moroshkina, M.V. (2022). Assessment of Economic and Human Potential and Inequality of the Russian Arctic Territories on the Example of the Regions of the Karelian Arctic. Russian Arctic, No. 2, 8–20. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.24412/2658-4255-2022-2-08-20

          2. Spiridonov, A., Fadeev, A. (2023). Strategic Priorities for Unmanned Technologies in Energy Projects in the Russian Arctic. Strategizing: Theory and Practice, Vol. 3, No. 3, 322–335. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.21603/2782-2435-2023-3-3-322-335

          3. Goncharov, A.V. (2022). Development of a Mechanism for Assessing the Investment Attractiveness of Infrastructure and Energy Projects in the Arctic. Creative Economy, Vol. 16, No. 11, 4491–4502. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.18334/ce.16.11.116625

          4. Goncharov, A.V., Petrov, I.V. (2024). Multiplicative Effects of Sustainable Development of Energy Projects in the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation. Journal of Economics, Entrepreneurship and Law, Vol. 14, No. 5, 2307–2322. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.18334/epp.14.5.121010

          5. Lazhentsev, V.N. (2021). The Arctic and the North in the Context of Russia's Spatial Development. Economy of Region, Vol. 17, No. 3, 737–754. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2021-3-2

          6. Kudryashova, E.V., Zarubina, L.A., Sivobrova, I.A. (2019). Challenges and Opportunities of Cross-Border Investment Cooperation in the Arctic Region. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast, Vol. 12, No. 1, 39–52. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.15838/esc.2019.1.61.2

          7. Topoleva, T.N. (2022). Genesis of Conceptual Approaches to Spatial Economics. Vestnik of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Vol. 19, No. 4, 94–130. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.21686/2413-2829-2022-4-94-130

          8. Lavrentyeva, E.A., Brovkina, A.V. (2022). Labor Potential of the Regions of the Arctic Zone. Transport Business of Russia, No. 2, 49–53. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.52375/20728689_2022_2_49

          9. Korchak, E.A. (2023). Priorities of Public Administration for the Development of Labor Potential in the Arctic. The North and the Market: Forming the Economic Order, No. 2, 133–145. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.37614/2220-802X.2.2023.80.009

          10. Agarkov, S.A., Kozlov, A.V., Fedoseev, S.V., Teslya, A.B. (2018). Major trends in efficiency upgrading of the economic activity in the Arctic zone of Russian Federation. Journal of Mining Institute, Vol. 230, 209–216. https://doi.org/10.25515/PMI.2018.2.209

          11. Baklanov, P.Ya., Moshkov, A.V. (2015). Spatial Differentiation of the Economic Structure of the Russian Regions of the Arctic Zone. R-Economy, Vol. 1, No. 1, 47–56. https://doi.org/10.15826/recon.2015.1.005

          12. Urasova, A., Fedoseeva, S. (2024). Comparative analysis of sustainable development of industrial enterprises in the Arctic territories of the Russian Federation. Perm University Herald. Economy, Vol. 19, No. 2, 206–219. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.17072/1994-9960-2024-2-206-219

          13. Naumov, I.V., Nikulina, N.L. (2022). Assessment of Spatial Heterogeneity of Economic Activity of Business Entities in Municipalities of Sverdlovsk Oblast. Economy of Region, Vol. 18, No. 3, 820–836. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-3-14

          14. Goncharova, K.S., Shelomentsev, A.G., Amaglobeli, E.G. (2025). Main Trends in the Fragmentation of the Economic Space of the Old Industrial Territories of the Russian North and Arctic. The North and the Market: Forming the Economic Order, No. 3, 7–24. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.37614/2220-802X.3.2025.89.001.1

          15. Teixeira, V.M., Ferreira, C., Smalley, C. (2022). Social division of space and socio-spatial fragmentation in Mossoró/RN/Brazil. Mercator, Vol. 21, 1–13. https://doi.org/10.4215/RM2022.E21015

          16. Marjanovic, M., Williams, J. (2024). Mapping the emergence of the circular economy within the governance paths of shrinking cities and regions: a comparative study of Parkstad Limburg (NL) and Satakunta (FI). Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Vol. 17, Issue 3, 517–534. https://doi.org/10.1093/cjres/rsae019

          17. Alvarez, J., Yumashev, D., Whiteman, G. (2019). A framework for assessing the economic impacts of Arctic change. Ambio: A Journal of the Human Environment, Vol. 47, Issue 2, 407–418. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-019-01211-z

          18. Wang, C., Liu, D., Shan, H., Chi, Y., Wang, Q., Yu, Y., Yang, X. (2024). The geopolitical environment impact of Arctic Passage on Eurasia: An analysis based on multi-factor geometric potential models. Sustainable Environment, Vol. 10, Issue 1, 2305983. https://doi.org/10.1080/27658511.2024.2305983

          19. Osborne, M., Rubinstein, A. (2020). Models in Microeconomic Theory. Cambridge, UK, Open Book Publishers, 329 p. doi.org/10.11647/OBP.0211

          20. Stepus, I., Rodion, I. (2025). Population Migration in the Russian Arctic as Reflected in the Media. Arctic and North, No. 60, 241–262. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.37482/issn2221-2698.2025.60.241

          21. Hanacek, K., Kroger, M., Scheidel, A., Rojas, F., Martinez-Alier, J. (2022). On thin ice – The Arctic commodity extraction frontier and environmental conflicts. Ecological Economics, Vol. 191, 107247. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107247

          22. Shi, G., Zhang, L., Liu, Y., Zhou, C., Zhang, D., Hu, Y., Hong, M. (2025). The characteristics of spatiotemporal variations in Arctic amplification and its association with sea ice. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 130, e2025JD044008. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JD044008

          23. Liu, Y. (2025). Resource Endowment and Regional Economic Development Path Selection: an Analysis Based on Geoeconomics. Highlights in Business, Economics and Management, Vol. 58, 32–36. https://doi.org/10.54097/d4qv7q14

          24. Spiegel, Y. (2021). The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index and the Distribution of Social Surplus. Journal of Industrial Economics, Vol. 69, Issue 3, 561–594. https://doi.org/10.1111/joie.12253

          25. Naumov, I.V., Nikulina, N.L., Barybina, A.Z., et al. (2024). Priorities for Spatial Development of the Ural Federal District. Ekaterinburg, Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 453 p. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.17059/1_2025

          26. Yongheng, D., Shan, X., Fei, L., Jinglin, T., Liyue, G., Xiaoying, L., Tingxiao, W., Hongrui, W. (2024). GIS-based assessment of spatial and temporal disparities of urban health index in Shenzhen, China. Frontiers in Public Health, Vol. 12, 1429143. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2024.1429143

          27. Vasiliev, G.G., Dzhalyabov, A.A., Leonovich, I.A. (2021). Analysis of the Causes of Deformations of Engineering Structures of Gas Complex Facilities in Permafrost Zone. Journal of Mining Institute, Vol. 249, 377–385. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31897/PMI.2021.3.6

          28. Fursenko, E.A., Burukhina, A.I. (2021). Geochemistry of Oils and Condensates from the Tambey Group Fields (Yamal Peninsula, Western Siberia). Chemistry for Sustainable Development, Vol. 29, No. 4, 507–522. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.15372/KhUR2021327

          29. Ippolitova, N.A. (2018). Geographical Features of the Extractive Industry in Siberia. The Eurasian Scientific Journal, Vol. 10, No. 3, 1–10. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.15862/85ECVN318

          30. Petukhov, A.V., Kuklin, A.I., Petukhov, A.A., Vasques Cardenas, L.C., Roschin, P.V. (2014). Origins and Integrated Exploration of Sweet Spots in Carbonate and Shale Oil-Gas Bearing Reservoirs of the Timan-Pechora Basin. Proceedings of SPE/EAGE European Unconventional Resources Conference and Exhibition. European Association of Geoscientists & Engineers, SPE-167712-MS. https://doi.org/10.2118/167712-MS

          31. Pilyasov, A.N. (2021). Regional Industrial Policy in the Arctic Territories: What it is and What it Should Be? The North and the Market: Forming the Economic Order, No. 3, 7–29. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.37614/2220-802X.3.2021.73.001

          32. Sergeev, V., Ilin, I., Fadeev, A. (2021). Transport and Logistics Infrastructure of the Arctic Zone of Russia. Transportation Research Procedia, Vol. 54, 936–944. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trpro.2021.02.148

          33. Rozenberg, I.N. (2017). Northern Latitudinal Railway. World of Transport and Transportation, Vol. 15, No. 2, 2–29. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.30932/1992-3252-2017-15-2-29

          34. Veselova, E.Sh. (2018). "Yenisei Siberia" – The First Macroregion of Russia. ECO, No. 6, 20–37. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.30680/ECO0131-7652-2018-6-20-37

          35. Nikulina, N.L., Averina, L.M. (2021). The Role of Regional Transport and Logistics Infrastructure in the Formation of a Unified Economic Space. World of Transport and Transportation, Vol. 19, No. 3, 34–44. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.30932/1992-3252-2021-19-3-4

Acknowledgements

The article was prepared based on the results of research carried out at the expense of budgetary funds under the state assignment to the Financial University.

About Authors

Ilya Viktorovich Naumov

Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, Leading Researcher, Institute for Research on Socio-Economic Transformations and Financial Policy, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia (125009, Moscow, Tverskaya street, 22Bс3); ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2464-6266 e-mail: Ilia_naumov@list.ru

Anna Andreevna Salomatova

Researcher, Institute for Research on Socio-Economic Transformations and Financial Policy, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia (125009, Moscow, Tverskaya street, 22Bс3); ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8676-5298 e-mail: annaby4kova@yandex.ru

For citation

Naumov, I.V., Salomatova, A.A. (2026). Assessment of Spatial Heterogeneity in the Development of Industrial Potential in the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation. Journal of Applied Economic Research, Vol. 25, No. 2, 570-595. https://doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2026.25.2.019

Article info

Received February 6, 2026; Revised February 27, 2026; Accepted March 12, 2026.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2026.25.2.019

Download full text article: