Journal of Applied Economic Research
ISSN 2712-7435
Rethinking Tax Compliance Performance: Measurement Bias and Performance Indicators in the Digital Age
Iulia E. Labunets 1, Igor A. Mayburov 2,3, Oleg V. Bazhenov 2, Anna S. Sergeeva 1, Anastasia M. Khudyakova 1, Yan A. Manyn-Ool 1
1 Tomsk State University of Control Systems and Radioelectronics, Tomsk, Russia
2 Ural Federal University named after the First President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin, Yekaterinburg, Russia
3 Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia
Abstract
The transformation of tax administration in the context of digitalization and risk-based approaches has fundamentally altered the role of tax audits, raising new challenges for their evaluation. In Russia, the current system of performance indicators for on-site tax audits remains largely focused on formal fiscal outcomes, particularly the amount of additionally assessed taxes, which may lead to a distorted understanding of their effectiveness and broader economic impact. This study aims to assess the completeness and adequacy of the existing system of performance indicators for on-site tax audits in Russia. The paper hypothesizes that the current evaluation framework fails to capture key dimensions of effectiveness and performance, particularly those related to actual revenue collection, long-term behavioural effects, and the quality of control procedures. To address this issue, the study employs a triangulation approach combining three sources of evidence: (i) indicators derived from 22 academic studies, (ii) the OECD framework for tax administration performance, and (iii) the current system of indicators used by the Federal Tax Service of Russia. The analysis is complemented by a logical structuring of evaluation criteria using Ishikawa diagrams and a comparative assessment of convergence and divergence across the three datasets. The results reveal significant divergences in the Russian system, including the absence of indicators reflecting actual tax collection, deterrence effects, audit quality, and sectoral differentiation, as well as a limited orientation toward strategic objectives such as reducing the tax gap. At the same time, the findings identify important areas of convergence, particularly the recognition of effectiveness as a multidimensional concept. The study contributes to the literature by proposing a more comprehensive framework for evaluating tax audit performance and provides policy-relevant insights for improving tax administration systems in the context of digital transformation.
Keywords
on-site tax control; evaluation; triangulation; efficiency; effectiveness; indicators; convergence and divergence.
JEL classification
H26, H30, C18References
1. Pareto, V. (1935). The Mind and Society-a Treatise on General Sociology. Dover Publications Inc., 885 p. Available at: http://archive.org/details/in.ernet.dli.2015.118834
2. Samuelson, P.A. (1954). The Pure Theory of Public Expenditure. The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 36, No. 4, 387–389. https://doi.org/10.2307/1925895
3. Drucker, P.F. (1963). Managing for Business Effectiveness. Harvard Business Review, Vol. 41, No. 3, 53–60. Available at: https://rlaexp.com/studio/biz/conceptual_resources/authors/peter_drucker/managing-for-business-effectiveness.pdf
4. Kaplan, R.S., Norton, P.D. (1996). The Balanced Scorecard: Translating Strategy into Action. Harvard Business Review Press, 334 p. Available at: https://archive.org/details/balancedscorecar00kapl/page/n1/mode/2up
5. Parsons, T. (1951). The Social System. The Free Press, 600 p. Available at: https://archive.org/details/socialsystem0000pars
6. March, J.G., Olsen, G.P. (1989). Rediscovering Institutions: The Organizational Basis of Politics. New York, The Free Press, 248 p. Available at: https://archive.org/details/rediscoveringins00marc
7. Drucker, P.F. (1967). The Effective Executive. New York, Harper & Row, 200 p. Available at: https://archive.org/details/effectiveexecuti00druc
8. Pollitt, C. (2000). Public Management Reform: A Comparative Analysis – Into the Age of Austerity. Oxford University Press, 332 p. Available at: https://archive.org/details/publicmanagement0000poll_v1n1
9. Allingham, M.G., Sandmo, A. (1972). Income Tax Evasion: A Theoretical Analysis. Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 1, Issue 3-4, 323–338. https://doi.org/10.1016/0047-2727(72)90010-2
10. Chetty, R., Looney, W., Kroft, K. (2009). Salience and Taxation: Theory and Evidence. American Economic Review, Vol. 99, No. 4, 1145–1177. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.99.4.1145
11. Kahneman, D., Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk Econometrica, Vol. 47, No 2, 263–292. https://doi.org/10.2307/1914185
12. Alm, J. (2010) Testing Behavioral Public Economics Theories in the Laboratory. National Tax Journal, Vol. 63, Issue 4, 635–658. https://doi.org/10.17310/ntj.2010.4.02
13. Pomeranz, D., Vila-Belda, J. (2019). Taking State-Capacity Research to the Field: Insights from Collaborations with Tax Authorities. Annual Review of Economics, Vol. 11, Issue 1, 755–781. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-080218-030312
14. Slemrod, J., Blumenthal, M., Christian, C. (2001). Taxpayer Response to an Increased Probability of Audit: Evidence from a Controlled Experiment in Minnesota. Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 79, Issue 3, 455–483. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0047-2727(99)00107-3
15. Bergolo, M., Ceni, R., Cruces, G., Giaccobasso, M., Perez-Truglia, R. (2018). Misperceptions about Tax Audits. American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings, Vol. 108, 83–87. https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20181039
16. Loewenstein, G., Weber, E., Hsee, C., Welch, N. (2001). Risk As Feelings. Psychological Bulletin, Vol. 127, No. 2, 267–286. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.127.2.267
17. Alm, J., Malézieux, A. (2021). 40 years of tax evasion games: a meta-analysis. Experimental Economics, Vol. 24, Issue 3, 699–750. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-020-09679-3
18. Paleka, H., Vitezić, V. (2023). Tax Compliance Challenge through Taxpayers’ Typology. Economies, Vol. 11, Issue 9, 219. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies11090219
19. Kasper, M., Alm, J. (2022). Audits, audit effectiveness, and post-audit tax compliance. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Vol. 195, 87–102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2022.01.003
20. Kasper, M., Rablen, M. D. (2023). Tax compliance after an audit: Higher or lower? Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Vol. 207, 157–171. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2023.01.013
21. Coppier, R., Michetti, E., Scaccia, L. (2025). Size-Dependent Enforcement, Tax Evasion and Dimensional Trap. Computational Economics, Vol. 65, Issue 2, 585–611. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10614-023-10399-y
22. Blaufus, K., Reineke, J., Trenn, I. (2023). Perceived tax audit aggressiveness, tax control frameworks and tax planning: an empirical analysis. Journal of Business Economics, Vol. 93, Issue 3, 509–557. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11573-022-01116-6
23. Klimsa, D., Ullmann, R. (2023). Threshold-dependent tax enforcement and the size distribution of firms: evidence from Germany. International Tax and Public Finance, Vol. 30, Issue 4, 1002–1035. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10797-022-09732-2
24. Belnap, A., Hoopes, J.L., Maydew, E.L., Turk, A. (2022). Real effects of tax audits. Review of Accounting Studies, Vol. 29, Issue 1, 665–700. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11142-022-09717-w
25. Agostini, C. (2025). Small Firms’ Response to Real-World Operational Tax Audits. National Tax Journal, 2025. Vol. 78, Issue 2, 469–485. https://doi.org/10.1086/735401
26. Mittone, L., Panebianco, F., Santoro, A. (2017). The bomb-crater effect of tax audits: Beyond the misperception of chance. Journal of Economic Psychology, Vol. 61, 225–243. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2017.04.007
27. Collum, N.S., Jurney, S., Marshall, M. (2023). Investigating the Effect of Service Messages on Noncompliant Taxpayers’ Reactions to Imperfect Audits. The Journal of the American Taxation Association, Vol. 46, Issue 1, 1–21. https://doi.org/10.2308/JATA-2022-003
28. Grana, J., Lindsay, I., Lykke, L., McGill, M., McGlothlin, A., Leigh, N. Plumley, A. (2025). The specific indirect effect of IRS audits. International Tax and Public Finance, Vol. 32, Issue 4, 995–1029. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10797-024-09866-5
29. Labunets, Iu. E., Mayburov, I.A., Orlova, K.S. (2024). The Impact of Field Tax Audits on the Formation of Taxpayers' Opportunistic Behaviour: The Case of Russia's Timber Industry. Journal of Tax Reform, Vol. 10, No. 3, 591–608. https://doi.org/10.15826/jtr.2024.10.3.186
30. Rablen, M.D. (2014). Audit probability versus effectiveness: The Beckerian approach revisited. Journal of Public Economic Theory, Vol. 16, Issue 2, 322–342. https://doi.org/10.1111/jpet.12062
31. Distefano, R., Reito, F. (2025). Catch Laffer If You Can: Tax Take in an Evasion-Detection Game. Journal of Public Economic Theory, Vol. 27, Issue 6, e70082. https://doi.org/10.1111/jpet.70082
32. Lancee, B., Rossel, L., Matthias, K. (2023). When the agency wants too much: Experimental evidence on unfair audits and tax compliance. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Vol. 214, 406–442. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2023.08.011
33. Eleni, K., Charalampos, K., Anastasiou, A. (2023). Measuring Tax Administrations Efficiency Using Data Envelopment Analysis: Evidence from 26 European Countries. International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Vol. 13, No. 1, 61–109. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJCEE.2022.10045264
34. Yan, K. Zuo, M. Zhang, H. Gong, Y. Fang, J. (2022). Optimization of Tax Collection and Administration Efficiency in Less Developed Regions of Western China. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, 7771216. https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/7771216
35. Alm, J. (2011). Measuring, explaining, and controlling tax evasion: Lessons from theory, experiments, and field studies. International Tax and Public Finance, Vol. 19, Issue 1, 54–77. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10797-011-9171-2
36. Beer, S., Kasper, M., Kirchler, E., Erard, B. (2020). Do audits deter or provoke future tax noncompliance? Evidence on self-employed taxpayers. CESifo Economic Studies, Vol. 66, Issue 3, 248–264. https://doi.org/10.1093/cesifo/ifz018
37. Tawfik, O.I., Elmaasrawy, H.E. (2024). Determinants of the Quality of Tax Audits for Content Creation Tax and Tax Compliance: Evidence from Egypt. Sage Open, Vol. 14, Issue 1, 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1177/21582440241227755
38. Boning, W.C., Hendren, N., Sprung-Keyser, B., Stuart, E.A. (2023). Welfare Analysis of Tax Audits Across the Income Distribution. NBER Working Paper Series, No. 31376. Cambridge, National Bureau of Economic Research, 77 p. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4483676
39. Slemrod, J. (2019). Tax Compliance and Enforcement. Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 57, No. 4, 904–954. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.20181437
40. Tarfa, E., Tarekegn, G., Yosef, B. (2020). Effects of tax audit on revenue generation. Journal of International Trade, Logistics and Law, Vol. 6, No. 1, 65–74. Available at: https://www.jital.org/index.php/jital/article/view/155/pdf_85
41. Olawale, M.K., Adejuwon, J.A. (2025). Are Tax Penalties Effective Enough in Combating Tax Evasion? Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Studies, Vol. 8, Issue 7, 4082–4097. https://doi.org/10.47191/jefms/v8-i7-07
42. Mitone, L., Ploner, M., Verrina, E. (2021). When the state does not play dice: aggressive audit strategies foster tax compliance. Social Choice and Welfare, Vol. 57, 591–615. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00355-021-01325-y
43. Hashimzade, N., Myles, G.D., Rablen, M.D. (2016). Predictive analytics and the targeting of audits. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Vol. 124, 130–145. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2015.11.009
44. Chalu, H., Mzee, H. (2017). Determinants of tax audit effectiveness in Tanzania. Managerial Auditing Journal, Vol. 33, Issue 1, 35–63. https://doi.org/10.1108/MAJ-06-2016-1390
45. Marlisza, P.D., Yulianti, Y. (2022). Analisis audit coverage ratio dalam rangka meningkatkan kinerja pemeriksaan pajak [Analysis of audit coverage ratio in improving tax audit performance]. Journal of Applied Business and Economic, Vol. 8, No. 3, 228–251. http://dx.doi.org/10.30998/jabe.v8i3.11417
46. Mawani, A., Trivedi, V.U. (2021). Collusive vs coercively corrupt tax auditors and their impact on tax compliance. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Vol. 30, 100470. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2021.100470
47. Kogler, C., Mittone, L., Kirchler, E. (2016). Delayed feedback on tax audits affects compliance and fairness perceptions. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Vol. 124, 81–87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2015.10.014
48. Hajawiyah, A., Suryarini, T., Kiswanto, K., Tarmudji, T. (2021). Analysis of a tax amnesty’s effectiveness in Indonesia. Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Vol. 44, 100415. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intaccaudtax.2021.100415
49. Spinelli, D., Berta, P., Santoro, A. (2025). Which tax audits should be increased? Evidence from Italy using a machine learning approach. International Tax and Public Finance. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10797-025-09925-5
50. Rabasco, M., Battiston, P. (2023). Predicting the deterrence effect of tax audits: A machine learning approach. Metroeconomica, Vol. 74, Issue 3, 531–556. https://doi.org/10.1111/meca.12420
51. Bauer, Ch., Hidayat, A. (2024). The Impact of Tax Audits on Compliance Dynamics in a Developing Economy. WU International Taxation Research Paper Series, No. 2024-08. Business Taxation Group. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4937326
52. Advani, A., Elming, W., Shaw, J. (2023). The Dynamic Effects of Tax Audits. The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 195, Issue 3, 545–561. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01101
53. Kotsogiannis, C., Salvadori, L., Karangwa, J., Mukamana, T. (2024). Do tax audits have a dynamic impact? Evidence from corporate income tax administrative data. Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 170, 103292. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103292
54. Bergolo, M., Ceni, R., Cruces, G., Giaccobasso, M., Perez‑Truglia, R. (2023). Tax audits as scarecrows: Evidence from a large‑scale field experiment. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, Vol. 15, No. 1, 110–153. https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20200321
55. Li, H., Wang, X. (2025). Firm responses to tax audits: Regression discontinuity evidence from a threshold‑based audit program. The Economic Journal, Vol. 136, Issue 674, 560–601. https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueaf060
Acknowledgements
The authors thank the reviewers for their suggestions and comments, which provided very scientific guidance for this study.
The article was prepared based on the results of research carried out at the expense of budgetary funds under the state assignment of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
About Authors
Iulia Evgenievna Labunets
Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, Department of Economic Security, Tomsk State University of Control Systems and Radioelectronics, Tomsk, Russia (634050, Tomsk, Lenin prospekt, 40); ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8522-4115 e-mail:ulya.ev_84@mail.ru
Igor Anatolievich Mayburov
Doctor of Economics, Professor, Head of the Department of Financial and Tax Management, Ural Federal University named after the first President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin, Yekaterinburg, Russia (620002, Yekaterinburg, Mira street, 19); Chief Researcher, Institute for Research of Social and Economic Changes and Financial Policy, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia (125167, Moscow, Leningradsky prospekt, 49/2); https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8791-665X e-mail: mayburov.home@gmail.com
Oleg Viktorovich Bazhenov
Doctor of Economics, Associate Professor, Professor at the Research and Education Center for Systems Engineering, Ural Federal University named after the first President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin, Yekaterinburg, Russia (620002, Yekaterinburg, Mira street, 19); ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1515-6054 e-mail: o.v.bazhenov@urfu.ru
Anna Sergeevna Sergeeva
Student, Faculty of Security, Tomsk State University of Control Systems and Radioelectronics, Tomsk, Russia (634050, Tomsk, Lenin prospekt, 40); ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0004-2537-0056 e-mail: nyuta.sergeeva.04@mail.ru
Anastasia Maksimovna Khudyakova
Student, Faculty of Security, Tomsk State University of Control Systems and Radioelectronics, Tomsk, Russia (634050, Tomsk, Lenin prospekt, 40); ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0000-2609-4533 e-mail: khudyakova-nastya4@mail.com
Yan Alexandrovich Manyn-Ool
Student, Faculty of Security, Tomsk State University of Control Systems and Radioelectronics, Tomsk, Russia (634050, Tomsk, Lenin prospekt, 40); ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0000-6995-1363 e-mail: skeletikraw808@gmail.com
For citation
Labunets, Iu.E., Mayburov, I.A., Bazhenov, O.V., Sergeeva, A.S., Khudyakova, A.M., Manyn-Ool, Ya.A. (2026). Rethinking Tax Compliance Performance: Measurement Bias and Performance Indicators in the Digital Age. Journal of Applied Economic Research, Vol. 25, No. 2, 713-746. https://doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2026.25.2.024
Article info
Received February 9, 2026; Revised March 29, 2026; Accepted April 1, 2026.
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2026.25.2.024
Download full text article:
~735 KB, *.pdf
(Uploaded
26.06.2026)
Created / Updated: 2 September 2015 / 20 September 2021
© Federal State Autonomous Educational Institution of Higher Education «Ural Federal University named after the first President of Russia B.N.Yeltsin»
Remarks?
select the text and press:
site@urfu.ru
Portal design: Artsofte
©Ural Federal University named the first President of Russia B.N.Yeltsin (Website)
Privacy policy
We use the Yandex.Metrica internet service and cookies. This allows us to analyze visitor interactions with the website and improve it. By continuing to browse this website, you agree to our use of the Yandex.Metrica internet service and cookies. To view our privacy policy, click here.
We use the Yandex.Metrica internet service and cookies. This allows us to analyze visitor interactions with the website and improve it. By continuing to browse this website, you agree to our use of the Yandex.Metrica internet service and cookies. To view our privacy policy, click here.