Spatial Interactions and Scenario Forecasting of Mineral Extraction in Russian Resource Regions

Sergey S. Krasnykh

Institute of Economics, The Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russia

Abstract

The relevance of the study is due to the high spatial heterogeneity of mineral extraction in Russian resource regions and the need to take into account inter-municipal interactions when assessing the factors of development of the mining industry. Traditional regression models fail to fully capture the influence exerted by neighboring territories – a consideration of particular importance for the municipalities within the Ural Federal District, which vary significantly in terms of their resource bases, infrastructure, investment activity, and human capital potential. The objective of this study is to assess the impact of socioeconomic factors on the dynamics of mineral extraction within the municipalities of the Ural Federal District – specifically by incorporating spatial interactions into the analysis and to formulate scenario-based forecasts extending through 2028. The study’s central hypothesis posits that extraction dynamics are determined not only by a municipality’s own internal characteristics but also by the economic potential of its neighboring territories; furthermore, the nature of these inter-municipal interactions is hypothesized to shift depending on the specific scenario conditions in effect. The empirical foundation of the study consists of panel data covering 195 municipalities within the Ural Federal District for the period spanning 2010–2024. The methodological framework employed involves the estimation of spatial panel models – specifically SAR, SEM, and SDM – incorporating fixed effects; the utilization of three distinct spatial weight matrices; the decomposition of SDM effects into direct, indirect, and total components; the construction of ARIMA/ARMA-based scenarios; and robustness checks utilizing lagged regressors. The findings establish that mineral extraction is significantly correlated with investment activity, as well as with the development of manufacturing industries, the electric power sector, and the human capital potential of neighboring territories. Under a pessimistic scenario, the dependence on the resources of surrounding municipalities intensifies; conversely, under an optimistic scenario, the role of modernization, labor-saving technologies, and inter-industry cooperation becomes increasingly prominent. The theoretical significance of this study lies in its elucidation of the scenario-contingent nature of spatial effects, while its practical significance resides in the potential application of its findings to the formulation of spatial development strategies for resource-rich regions.

Keywords

spatial modeling; Spatial Durbin Model; spillover effects; mineral extraction; municipalities; Ural Federal District; scenario-based forecasting.

JEL classification

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About Authors

Sergey Sergeevich Krasnykh

Candidate of Economic Sciences, Senior Researcher at the Laboratory for Modeling Spatial Development of the Territory, Institute of Economics, The Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russia (620014, Yekaterinburg, Moskovskaya street, 29); ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2692-5656 e-mail: krasnykh.ss@uiec.ru

For citation

Krasnykh, S.S. (2026). Spatial Interactions and Scenario Forecasting of Mineral Extraction in Russian Resource Regions. Journal of Applied Economic Research, Vol. 25, No. 3, 965-990. https://doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2026.25.3.032

Article info

Received March 13, 2026; Revised June 5, 2026; Accepted June 26, 2026.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2026.25.3.032

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