Synergistic Effects of Scale and Financial Autonomy: Resilience of Russian Enterprises in a Turbulent External Environment

Nikita I. Alekhnovich, Alexander I. Pogorletskiy

St. Petersburg State University, Saint-Petersburg, Russia

Abstract

The systemic shock of 2022 and the mass exodus of foreign companies created a profound institutional vacuum in the Russian market. Under these conditions, the mobilization of internal defensive mechanisms, rather than the previous orientation towards foreign markets and funding sources, became the primary survival factor for domestic enterprises. The article aims to quantitatively assess structural shifts in the profitability levels of domestic business in a turbulent external environment following the 2022 systemic shock, and to test the impact of "resource armor" – the synergy between a company's scale and its financial autonomy – on enterprise resilience during the crisis period. The paper tests assumptions regarding the market adaptation of Russian business to a "new normalcy" characterized by an increased profit rate, as well as the synergy of firm scale and financial autonomy as the key driver of this process. The empirical foundation of the study is a balanced microdata panel of 35,764 independent enterprises in the Russian Federation (178,820 observations) for the 2020–2024 period, obtained from the SPARK database. The estimation is based on fixed-effects (FE) regression models and quantile analysis using a logit transformation of the capital structure. The main results include the following: first, a stepwise leap in profitability in 2022 is confirmed (ROS increased by 0.63 p.p., ROA by 0.90 p.p.), which decays by 2024 due to the pressure of accumulated capital expenditures; second, the effect of "resource armor" is mathematically proven, showing that upon crossing a critical asset threshold, financial autonomy transforms into a multiplier of market power. The theoretical significance lies in expanding the concept of the "cleansing effect" of crises: under conditions of external isolation, market selection shifts from technological efficiency to resource endowment. The practical value consists in recommendations for overcoming the investment pause and justifying adjustments (ranging from +0.5 to +0.9 p.p.) to profitability intervals for tax control and transfer pricing purposes.

Keywords

crisis adaptation; crisis management; concept of "resource armor"; business profitability; resource-based theory of the firm; sanctions shock; synergistic effect.

JEL classification

References

1. Robertson, J. (2024). Planning for grey rhino risks: How to prepare for the 'unforeseeable'. Journal of Business Continuity & Emergency Planning, Vol. 17, Issue 4, 383–394. https://doi.org/10.69554/MQDO5688

         2. Aven, T. (2015). Implications of black swans to the foundations and practice of risk assessment and management. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 134, 83–91. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2014.10.004

         3. Simachev, Yu.V., Fedyunina, A.A., Kuzyk, M.G. (2022). Russian industrial policy in the context of global production system transformation and severe constraints. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 6, 5–25. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2022-6-5-25

         4. Golikova, V.V., Kuznetsov, B.V. (2021). Strategies of Russian manufacturing enterprises towards import under economic sanctions. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 7, 89–106. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2021-7-89-106

         5. Shirokova, G., Bogatyreva, K., Beliaeva, T. (2015). Entrepreneurial Orientation of Russian Firms: the Role of External Environment. Foresight and STI Governance, Vol. 9, No. 3, 6–25. https://doi.org/10.17323/1995-459x.2015.3.6.25

         6. Zubarevich, N.V. (2015). Regional projection of the new Russian crisis. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 4, 37–52. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2015-4-37-52

         7. Mau, V.A. (2022). Economic policy in times of the pandemic: The experience of 2021–2022. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 3, 5–28. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2022-3-5-28

         8. Caballero, R.J., Hammour, M.L. (1994). The cleansing effect of recessions. American Economic Review, Vol. 84, No. 5, 1350–1368. https://doi.org/10.3386/w3922

         9. Barney, J.B. (1991). Firm resources and sustained competitive advantage. Journal of Management, Vol. 17, No. 1, 99–120. https://doi.org/10.1177/014920639101700108

         10. Wernerfelt, B. (1984). A resource-based view of the firm. Strategic Management Journal, Vol. 5, Issue 2, 171–180. https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.4250050207

         11. Kraaijenbrink, J., Spender, J.C., Groen, A.J. (2010). The Resource-Based View: A Review and Assessment of its Critiques. Journal of Management, Vol. 36, No. 1, 349–372. https://doi.org/10.1177/0149206309350775

         12. Linnenluecke, M.K. (2017). Resilience in Business and Management Research: A Review of Influential Publications and a Research Agenda. International Journal of Management Reviews, Vol. 19, Issue 1, 4–30. https://doi.org/10.1111/ijmr.12076

         13. Bloom, N. (2014). Fluctuations in Uncertainty. Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 28, No. 2, 153–176. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.28.2.153

         14. Myers, S.C., Majluf, N.S. (1984). Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have. Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 13, Issue 2, 187–221. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(84)90023-0

         15. Duchin, R., Ozbas, O., Sensoy, B.A. (2010). Costly external finance, corporate investment, and the subprime mortgage credit crisis. Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 97, Issue 3, 418–435. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2009.12.008

         16. Gungoraydinoglu, A., Öztekin, Ö. (2011). Firm- and country-level determinants of corporate leverage. Journal of Corporate Finance, Vol. 17, Issue 5, 1457–1474. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2011.08.004

         17. Melitz, M.J. (2003). The impact of trade on intra-industry reallocations and aggregate industry productivity. Econometrica, Vol. 71, Issue 6, 1695–1725. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0262.00467

         18. Ershov, M.V. (2022). Russian economy in the face of new sanctions challenges. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 12, 5–23. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2022-12-5-23

         19. Radygin, A.D., Entov, R.M. (2012). Government failures: Theory and policy. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 12, 4–30. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2012-12-4-30

         20. McAfee, R.P., Mialon, H.M., Williams, M.A. (2004). What is a Barrier to Entry? American Economic Review, Vol. 94, No. 2, 461–465. https://doi.org/10.1257/0002828041302235

         21. Porter, M.E. (1981). The Contributions of Industrial Organization to Strategic Management. Academy of Management Review, Vol. 6, No. 4, 609–620. https://doi.org/10.5465/amr.1981.4285706

         22. Radygin, A.D., Simachev, Yu.V., Entov, R.M. (2011). State and desubstantiation: Risks and constraints of the "new privatization policy". Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 9, 4–26. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2011-9-4-26

         23. Materova, E.S., Ponomarev, S.V., Koryakina, T.V., Abalakin, A.A. (2024). Russian labor market during the pandemic: Adaptation to changes. Tomsk State University Journal of Economics, No. 67, 102–120. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.17223/19988648/67/6

         24. Yakovlev, A.A., Kuzyk, M.G., Sedykh, I.A. (2021). The impact of the pandemic and state anti-crisis policy on the Russian IT sector. ECO, No. 5, 8–28. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.30680/ECO0131-7652-2021-5-8-28

         25. Simachev, Yu.V., Dolgopyatova, T.G., Yakovlev, A.A. (2021). The COVID-19 pandemic: The reaction of Russian enterprises and the challenges for post-crisis development. Journal of the New Economic Association, No. 4, 228–235. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2021-52-4-10

         26. Shirokova, G.V., Ivvonen, L., Gafforova, E.B. (2019). Strategic entrepreneurship in Russia during economic crisis. Foresight and STI Governance, Vol. 13, No. 3, 62–76. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.17323/2500-2597.2019.3.62.76

         27. Bell, A., Jones, K. (2015). Explaining Fixed Effects: Random Effects Modeling of Time-Series Cross-Sectional and Panel Data. Political Science Research and Methods, Vol. 3, Issue 1, 133–153. https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2014.7

         28. Hoechle, D. (2007). Robust Standard Errors for Panel Regressions with Cross-Sectional Dependence. The Stata Journal, Vol. 7, Issue 3, 281–312. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X0700700301

         29. Kwak, S.K., Kim, J.H. (2017). Statistical Data Preparation: Management of Missing Values and Outliers. Korean Journal of Anesthesiology, Vol. 70, Issue 4, 407–411. https://doi.org/10.4097/kjae.2017.70.4.407

         30. Roodman, D. (2009). How to do xtabond2: An Introduction to Difference and System GMM in Stata. The Stata Journal, Vol. 9, Issue 1, 86–136. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X0900900106

         31. Ai, C., Norton, E.C. (2003). Interaction Terms in Logit and Probit Models. Economics Letters, Vol. 80, Issue 1, 123–129. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(03)00032-6

         32. Hausman, J.A. (1978). Specification tests in econometrics. Econometrica, Vol. 46, No. 6, 1251–1271. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913827

         33. Petersen, M.A. (2009). Estimating standard errors in finance panel data sets: Comparing approaches. Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 22, Issue 1, 435–480. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhn053

         34. Angrist, J.D., Pischke, J.S. (2010). The Credibility Revolution in Empirical Economics: How Better Research Design is Taking the Con out of Econometrics. Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 24, No. 2, 3–30. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.24.2.3

         35. O'Brien, R.M. (2007). A Caution Regarding Rules of Thumb for Variance Inflation Factors. Quality & Quantity, Vol. 41, Issue 5, 673–690. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-006-9018-6

         36. Naydenova, Yu.N., Shalaeva, E.V. (2022). Economic policy uncertainty under sanctions restrictions: The impact on cash holdings of Russian companies. Russian Management Journal, Vol. 20, No. 4, 482–497. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu18.2022.402

         37. Arellano, M., Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 58, Issue 2, 277–297. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297968

         38. Simachev, Yu.V., Yakovlev, A.A., Golikova, V.V., Gorodnyi, N.A., Kuznetsov, B.V., Kuzyk, M.G., Fedyunina, A.A. (2023). Russian industrial companies under the "second wave" of sanctions: Response strategies. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 12, 5–30. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2023-12-5-30

         39. Bloom, N. (2009). The impact of uncertainty shocks. Econometrica, Vol. 77, Issue 3, 623–685. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA6248

         40. Milgrom, P., Roberts, J. (1990). The Economics of Modern Manufacturing: Technology, Strategy, and Organization. American Economic Review, Vol. 80, No. 3, 511–528. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2006681

         41. Boschma, R. (2015). Towards an evolutionary perspective on regional resilience. Regional Studies, Vol. 49, Issue 5, 733–751. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2014.959481

         42. Christensen, C.M. (1997). The Innovator's Dilemma. Boston, Harvard Business Review Press, 286 p. Available at: https://cpcglobal.org/publications/The%20Innovators%20Dilemma.pdf

         43. Minakir, P.A., Demyanenko, A.N. (2010). Spatial economics: Evolution of approaches and methodology. Spatial Economics, No. 2, 6–32. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.14530/se.2010.2.006-032

         44. O'Reilly, C.A., Tushman, M.L. (2008). Ambidexterity as a Dynamic Capability: Resolving the Innovator's Dilemma. Research in Organizational Behavior, Vol. 28, 185–206. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.riob.2008.06.002

About Authors

Nikita Igorevich Alekhnovich

Post-Graduate Student, Faculty of  Economics, St. Petersburg State University, Saint-Petersburg, Russia (191034, Saint-Petersburg, Universitetskaya Nab., 7/9); ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5770-9764 e-mail: st095549@student.spbu.ru

Alexander Igorevich Pogorletskiy

Doctor of Economics, Professor, Department of World Economy, St. Petersburg State University, Saint-Petersburg, Russia (191034, Saint-Petersburg, Universitetskaya Nab., 7/9); ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4495-5557 e-mail: a.pogorletskiy@spbu.ru

For citation

Alekhnovich, N.I., Pogorletskiy, A.I. (2026). Synergistic Effects of Scale and Financial Autonomy: Resilience of Russian Enterprises in a Turbulent External Environment. Journal of Applied Economic Research, Vol. 25, No. 3, 1049-1077. https://doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2026.25.3.035

Article info

Received March 17, 2026; Revised May 24, 2026; Accepted May 30, 2026.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2026.25.3.035

Download full text article: