Journal of Applied Economic Research
ISSN 2712-7435
MODELING THE DYNAMICS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN TERMS OF RUSSIAN MEMBERSHIP IN WTO
Tarasyev A.M., Tarasyev A.A., Tarasyeva T.V.
Abstract
Ensuring economic security is one of the priorities of the state. In recent years, the independence of the Russian Federation regions is increasing in the areas of governance, management and administration of regional financial resources. The trend of management decentralization leads to growing responsibility of regional authorities for the current socio-economic situation in the subordinate subjects, as well as for its further development.
Investment in fixed capital reflects the attractiveness of the region's manufacturing sector. Calculation of investment per capita ensures the comparability of this indicator for the Ural Federal District regions. It is advisable to carry out the dynamics analysis of investment in fixed capital within the framework of assessing the socio-economic condition and considering the consequences of Russia's membership in the WTO. We modeled the main macroeconomic indicators in order to determine the potential sustainability of regional economic systems. As the main research method we used a modified version of the Solow-Ramsey economic growth model.
In this modification of the model we consider the problem of optimal investments control in which the objective functional is represented as an integral of the logarithmic index of consumption, discounted over an infinite time period. Dynamic trajectories in this system are presented as S-shape curves, regardless of the development scenario, which is provided by a model parameter, limiting the level of investment. In addition, modeled optimal trajectories are characterized by a trend of growth saturation.
It should be noted that by the elaboration of strategies for the regional economic development and the calculation of investment inflows in these regions it is necessary to rely on the results of calculations based on short-term forecasts due to their greater precision and proximity to the real situation. According to the obtained results, we conclude that oil and gas-rich regions have the greatest resistance to external and internal threats. The lowest resistance is observed in the Kurgan region due to a high demographic burden on the working population.
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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2015.14.4.032
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