Journal of Applied Economic Research
ISSN 2712-7435
METHODICAL BASES OF ESTIMATION MULTIPLICATIVE EFFECT OF THE REALIZATION OF SOCIALLY SIGNIFICANT INVESTMENT PROJECTS
Tatarkin D.A., Sidorova E.N., Trynov A.V.
Abstract
<pre>The article examines the existing approaches to the analysis of the effectiveness
of investment and projects in the private and public sectors. The main purpose of the article is to justify the idea that the assessment
of socially significant investment projects by public authorities should take into account,
first, the structural features of the regional reproductive system, and second, the direct
and indirect economic multiplier effects arising in the course of the project implementation.
The article presents a multifactor balance model of a region's economy - the matrix of financial
flows, based on the theory of general economic equilibrium, the "costs - output" balance
method and the national accounts methodology. Using the case of Sverdlovsk Region, designed
matrix multipliers were computed that make it possible to model the economic effects
resulting from the exposure to different types of exogenous economic factors. Calculation
of matrix multipliers was performed through a system of linear equations. It is shown that
the need to use specific methods of evaluation of socially significant investment projects
is due to a considerable volume of external and indirect economic effects.
The main provisions of the author's methodology are presented for assessing the financial
and economic efficiency of large investment projects. Its distinctive feature is the account
of multiplicative economic effects calculated on the basis of the matrix of financial flows.
For example, the construction of a toll road in Sverdlovsk region provided an opportunity
to use the developed method for public authorities. The multiplicative effect of tax is
calculated on the basis of the MFF of the Sverdlovsk region, compiled using data from 2013.
At the end a conclusion was made that when evaluating the performance of socially significant
projects the accounting multiplier effect can have a significant impact on the authorities' final
decision as to whether to implement the project.
Keywords
About Authors
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2015.14.4.033
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