Journal of Applied Economic Research
ISSN 2712-7435
Prediction Of Small R&D Enterprise Development Based On The Index Of Project Portfolio Entropy
Ershova I.V., Gamberg A.E.
Abstract
The article deals with the problems of R&D enterprise management and some aspects of its strategy formation. The method for predicting the development of R&D-driven enterprises at the early stages of their life cycle, such as the "emergence" and "growth" is shown. The study, whose results are presented in this article, is to prove the hypothesis that the formation of the development strategy of an R&D-driven enterprise can be based on the prediction of points of transition from one phase of the life cycle of the company to another, i.e., "bifurcation" points. In this study, an analysis of the classical approaches to the strategy development of the enterprise, including contemporary life cycle management literature is given. Based on the analysis, we proposed an approach to forecasting the transition points of the lifecycle of the enterprise, which is based on a probabilistic assessment of the commercialization of projects, their technical processing, as well as the degree of disorder in the company’s project portfolio. The study proposes to assess the degree of structuring of the portfolio as a probabilistic object with information entropy, with its growth to critical values being a criterion for predicting the transition of the enterprise to a new stage of its life cycle. The hypothesis put forth in the article is supported with calculations, correlation analysis and comparison of the level of company’s performance and the level of the entropy of its portfolio over a time period. The calculation was done based on a sample which included R&D-driven enterprises of the Ural and Siberian autonomous regions of Russia. The study found an inverse relationship between the level of income of R&D-driven enterprises in the early stages of their development and the level of entropy of their project portfolio. Typical strategic decisions on project portfolio management on the basis of the forecast are proposed. The results can be used in strategy management.
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Keywords
Key words: product innovation; production innovation; enterprise innovation; research; entropy; forecast; project portfolio; bifurcation; life cycle strategy.
About Authors
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2016.15.1.02
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