Journal of Applied Economic Research
ISSN 2712-7435
Indicators of Early Crisis : in Search of New Approaches
Ekimova N.A.
Abstract
The significant role of monetary policy and its impact on the economic development of the state has spawned activity in the field of research methods to assess its effectiveness and anticipatory diagnostics that predict economic growth. Search activities in the field of predictive diagnostics are based on the theory of the credit cycle and is carried out in several promising research directions. The first one relates to identification of predictive indicators of the monetary environment. The second direction focuses on the development of a set of consolidated monetary leading indicators. The third area involves analytical research on the practical use of existing early warning indicators of crises. Foreign and domestic experience in this field involves carrying out specific work on its generalization and systematization. This article presents an overview of existing early warning indicators of crises, methods, approaches to their identification and construction and analysis of their practical use. Integral and local indices of leading indicators such as indices of financial stress and financial condition are considered. Exchange Market Pressure index, Monetary Condition Index and others are considered. A relationship between the diagnostic indicators and the current phase of the credit cycle is examined. Such tools used for the definition of «pre-crisis» instruments as a method of non-parametric estimates based on the «signal» method of crisis diagnostics and econometric approaches are shown. The result of this research is a detailed analysis of the disadvantages of the considered methods and ways of overcoming the methodological impasse in the practice of predictive diagnostics. The necessity of using the integral index of monetary efficiency based on the main provisions of the modern institutional theory is defined.
Keywords
monetary policy; the crisis; leading indicators; anticipatory diagnostics
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About Authors
Ekimova Natalia Alexandrovna – Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, Leading Staff Scientist, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia (125993, Moscow, Leningradsky prospekt, 49); e-mail: n.ekimova@bk.ru.
For citation
Ekimova N.A. Indicators of Early Crisis Prevention: in Search of New Approaches. Bulletin of Ural Federal University. Series Economics and Management, 2017, Vol. 16, No. 6, 985-1002. DOI: 10.15826/vestnik.2017.16.6.047
Article info
Received September 10, 2017; Accepted November 7, 2017.
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2017.16.6.047
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