Journal of Applied Economic Research
ISSN 2712-7435
Fertility in the Ural Federal District: Modeling and Evaluation of the Dynamics Prospects
Shubat O.M., Shmarova I.V.
Abstract
Abstract. The article presents the results of the statistical analysis and econometric modeling of fertility dynamics in the Urals Federal District. The relevance of the study is determined by the instability of demographic processes in Russia, their noticeable regional specificity, and negative forecasts of the population replacement. The purpose of the study is to analyze the current situation and identify the prospects of the fertility dynamics in different regions of the Urals Federal District using econometric modeling. To conduct the study, we used the data of the Federal State Statistics Service. We analyzed the absolute and relative indicators of fertility. Time series from 1990 to 2014 were examined. To estimate the trends in birth rates dynamics we applied descriptive statistics, regression analysis of the time series data (analytical smoothing method) and correlation analysis of the time series’ irregular components based on Spearman's rank correlation coefficient. By using the designated methods and techniques we obtained the substantial and coherent results, namely, we described the dynamics of the birth rates and assessed the prospects of demographic trends in different regions of the Urals Federal District. The study also made it possible to draw a conclusion about the necessity of a differentiated approach to the development of effective measures to promote and support fertility. Such an approach should be based on a regional perspective. An effective way to implement this is by taking into consideration the difference not only in the current values of birth rates, but also in the character of their dynamics. The study revealed that the modeling of the reproduction processes by using regression analysis can be considered as a relevant and valid approach to evaluate the population replacement. Such simulations can act as an information and analytical basis for sound management decisions and the development of effective programs aimed at improving the demographic situation in the region.
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Keywords
Key words: population replacement; fertility; demographic development, modeling; the Ural Federal District
About Authors
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2016.15.3.23
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