Journal of Applied Economic Research
ISSN 2712-7435
Methodology of Quantitative Estimation of Non-Observed Economy at the Regional Level on the Basis of the Branch Structure of Gross Added Value
Kakaulina M.O.
Abstract
The paper deals with the problem of quantitative estimation of the non-observed economy at a regional level. The purpose of this article is to develop a methodology for calculating the share of economic transactions that are not observed by direct statistical methods in the gross added value (GVA) of regions and its testing on the economy of the Far Eastern regions of the Russian Federation. In the course of the research, the system-structural method was applied, as well as indirect methods based on economic indicators of the Federal Service of State Statistics of the Russian Federation. We developed a methodology for quantitative estimation of the non-observed economy at a regional level. The methodology is based on the sectoral structure of the GVA. Using this methodology, the values of the share of shadow operations in the Far Eastern regions were determined. Based on the results of the study, we made two main conclusions. First, a large share of shadow operations is typical for the Primorsky Territory, the Jewish Autonomous Region and the Khabarovsk Territory - about 9-10% in 2016. Second, over the past 12 years, the size of the unobserved economy in all the regions of the Russian Federation has decreased significantly - by about 6 pp. This indicates a gradual change in the way of economic life that was formed in the 1990s: corruption sentiments in society are receding, a growing number of entrepreneurs are legalizing their activities, population seeks to receive officially reported wages. In the future, the obtained values of the scale of the non-observed economy in the Far East can be used for comparison with the similar index of other territories, and also for constructing various models.
Keywords
non-observed economy; region; Far East; gross added value; branches of economy; development trends
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About Authors
Kakaulina Maria Olegovna – Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, Department of Finance, Amur State University, Blagoveschensk, Russia (675027, Amur Region, Blagoveschensk, Ignat’yevskoye shosse, 21); e-mail: beuty1@mail.ru.
For citation
Kakaulina M.O. Methodology of Quantitative Estimation of Non-Observed Economy at the Regional Level on the Basis of the Branch Structure of Gross Added Value. Bulletin of Ural Federal University. Series Economics and Management, 2018, Vol. 17, No. 6, 1021–1036. DOI: 10.15826/vestnik.2018.17.6.046.
Article info
Received October 5, 2018; Accepted October 25, 2018.
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2018.17.6.046
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