Journal of Applied Economic Research
ISSN 2712-7435
УДК 339.97
Взаимосвязь инноваций и диверсификации экспорта в российских регионах: имеют ли значение глобализация торговли, бизнес-потенциал и геополитика?
Мохаммед Шакиб
Уральский федеральный университет имени первого Президента России Б. Н. Ельцина, г. Екатеринбург, Россия
Аннотация
Российские регионы демонстрируют ограниченную степень диверсификации экспорта в основном из-за подавляющего доминирования экспорта углеводородов и их последующего влияния на государственные доходы внутри регионов. Тем не менее в свете текущей геополитической напряженности и экономической неопределенности Россия вынуждена уделять приоритетное внимание диверсификации своего экспорта. На этом фоне в данной статье мы эмпирически исследуем, могут ли инновации в какой-то степени увеличить диверсификацию экспорта российских регионов, обосновывая значимость таких факторов, как глобализация торговли благодаря вступлению России в ВТО, бизнес-потенциал на региональном уровне и экономические последствия санкций 2014 г. Данные были собраны по 66 регионам России в период с 2009 по 2019 г. Учитывая значительную неоднородность данных по регионам и за длительный период времени, в данном исследовании применялась квантильная регрессия методом моментов (Method of Moments Quantile Regression, MMQR) на панельных данных. Основные результаты исследования показывают, что инновации стимулируют диверсификацию экспорта в российских регионах при различных макроэкономических сценариях, где роль инноваций является ключевой в среднем и высшем квантилях. В статье также обосновывается, что вступление России в ВТО способствовало диверсификации экспорта страны, стимулируемого инновациями. Кроме того, в данном исследовании отмечается сильная динамика стимулируемой инновациями экспортной диверсификации в регионах России с высоким бизнес-потенциалом. Исследование также показало, что экономические санкции, введенные в 2014 г., обеспечили диверсификацию экспорта за счет инноваций в российских регионах. Полученные результаты исследования могут быть полезны при разработке практических подходов к стимулированию инноваций в частном секторе и диверсификации экспорта в российских регионах.
Ключевые слова
инновации; диверсификация экспорта; глобализация торговли; ВТО; геополитика; санкции; бизнес-потенциал; MMQR; Россия.
JEL classification
F13, G21, R11, O19Список использованной литературы
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Информация об авторах
Шакиб Мохаммед
Аспирант кафедры экономики, младший научный сотрудник лаборатории международной и региональной экономики Института экономики и управления Уральского федерального университета имени первого Президента России Б. Н. Ельцина, г. Екатеринбург, Россия (620002, г. Екатеринбург, ул. Мира, 19); ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0429-7943 e-mail: shakibbd@gmail.com
Для цитирования
Шакиб М. Взаимосвязь инноваций и диверсификации экспорта в российских регионах: имеют ли значение глобализация торговли, бизнес-потенциал и геополитика? // Journal of Applied Economic Research. 2023. Т. 22, № 4. С. 932-974. https://doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2023.22.4.037
Информация о статье
Дата поступления 21 августа 2023 г.; дата поступления после рецензирования 11 сентября 2023 г.; дата принятия к печати 9 октября 2023 г.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2023.22.4.037
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