Journal of Applied Economic Research
ISSN 2712-7435
Risk Considerations in the Scenarios of Personal Income Tax Reform
Balatskiy E.V., Ekimova N.A.
Abstract
The article deals with the problem of choosing one of the four scenarios of personal income tax reform. Three political factions (A Just Russia, the LDPR and the Communist party of the Russian Federation) advocate the introduction of a progressive income tax scale, while the Government of the Russian Federation offers to raise the flat rate from 13 to 15%. Each of these scenarios is characterized by the risk of non-compliance, which is necessary to consider when building a system of priorities for existing tax reform projects. The article proposes a questionnaire survey procedure that allows one to obtain expert estimates of the feasibility of these projects. The authors developed a generalized criterion for the effectiveness of the reform project in a multiplicative form. It takes into account the potential fiscal and social impact and reliability of each reform. The expert survey conducted by the authors and the quantitative estimates of the degree of reliability of tax reform projects made it possible to carry out applied calculations of the generalized criterion of the effectiveness of the available four variants of tax changes. The results of the calculations showed that the most optimal project is the project of the Government of the Russian Federation, involving the preservation of a flat scale with a slight increase in the standard rate. Projects envisaging the introduction of a progressive income tax scale have more modest estimates of the actual (real) performance. The ranking system for the projects based on the quantitative assessments produced the same result as the previously conducted simpler procedure for qualitative assessment of project risks. The main conclusion of the article is that it is premature to introduce progressive income tax in Russia. Such reform should be a matter of the more distant future.
Keywords
income tax; reform; project; questionnaire; model
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About Authors
Balatskiy Evgeny Vsevolodovich – Doctor of Economics, Professor, Director of the Center for Macroeconomic Research of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Chief Researcher, Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Moscow, Russia (125993, Moscow, Leningradsky Prospect, 49); e-mail: evbalatsky@inbox.ru.
Ekimova Natalia Aleksandrovna – Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, Leading Researcher, Center for Macroeconomic Studies, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Moscow, Russia (125993, Moscow, Leningradsky Prospect, 49); e-mail: n.ekimova@bk.ru.
For citation
Balatskiy E.V., Ekimova N.A. Risk Considerations in the Scenarios of Personal Income Tax Reform. Bulletin of Ural Federal University. Series Economics and Management, 2018, Vol. 17, No. 6, 1005–1020. DOI: 10.15826/vestnik.2018.17.6.045.
Article info
Received September 29, 2018; Accepted October 21, 2018.
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15826/vestnik.2018.17.6.045
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